As boring as the German parliamentary election may appear, all Europe waits with bated breath for the vote of 62 million Germans on September 22.
Incumbent Chancellor Angela Merkel’s victory seems pretty much assured. According to surveys issued to the TV network ZDF, 41% of voters believe that Germany is better off today than four years ago, and that the Chancellor has defended German interests well abroad, as she herself claims to have done during the euro crisis. The former physical chemist in East Germany seems to be sticking to a “you know you can trust me” strategy, refusing to engage her challenger on divisive campaign issues.
The “putting the campaign to sleep” strategy seems indeed tailor-made for a citizenship that appears unenthusiastic and detached in its economic dominant position, while the nightly news keep emphasising how bad Greeks, Spaniards and Italians are faring. A risky bet? If the Germans had voted last weekend, before the much hyped TV duel of Angela Merkel for CDU/CSU and Peer Steinbrück for SPD, the Christian Democrat party would have won with 41% of the vote, against the 26% for the Social Democrats.
The colour palette of the German elections includes, in addition to black for CDU/CSU, and red for SPD, yellow for FDP, the liberal ally that allows Merkel to govern, green for the Grünen, Germany’s environmental party, and a darker red for Linke, the left wing party, whose leaders come almost all from former Eastern Germany.
Only two coalitions are likely to emerge: a black-yellow one that could count on the 6% of FDP, or a new version of the grand coalition CDU/CSU-SPD. A success of the red-green coalition is considered unlikely if SPD does not progress significantly, because Grünen account only for 12% of the electorate.
The TV duel on Sunday September 1 was therefore seen as critical. Steinbrück is considered both, the best man for the job, but unappealing, and suffering a credibility loss derived from his role as Finance Minister of the grand coalition. However, he ranks high in all survey topics related to anything “sozial”. As expected, “Teflon Merkel” insisted in her conciliatory, embracing strategy.
Steinbrück, who has so far shown little conviction in his own success, proved to be very effective in the role of the challenger. Right at the start of the debate, Steinbrück asked the viewers not to let themselves be “lulled” by the chancellor, accusing Merkel’s government of “being dull, except for attending summits, and having no direction “.
At one point towards the end, both agreed that Germany would not get involved in Syria without a formal mandate from the international community, the UN, NATO or Europe.
When answering on the other campaign topics, Steinbrück pinpointed Merkel’s shortcomings and gained the rhetorical upper hand. But the social democratic “First 100 days Agenda” items, among which a federal minimum wage of € 8.50 — which is rejected by conservatives, who prefer single-union enterprise agreements; and a maximum tax rate of 49% for top incomes (that would still be lower than that of Helmut Kohl’s governments) to finance measures to fight poverty among the elderly, casual employment among young adults, and to increase the purchasing power of households — gave Merkel a fresh opportunity to tout her achievements: “They want to increase taxes … whereas we created 1.9 million new jobs.”
The Social Democrats must be given credit for being willing to go in depth on the single campaign topics, like energy, a field where they aim at exploiting all sources of energy, including coal, and reorganizing a system defined chaotic with “5 different agencies in charge”, as opposed to Merkel’s “messy” decision to phase-out nuclear energy after Fukushima.
On Greece Steinbrück was able to go on the attack again. Aid to Mediterranean countries should of course be matched by fiscal discipline, debt reduction and structural reforms, he said, but catapulting these countries “in a circle of hell” of lack of growth and recessions was counterproductive. Fiscal consolidation is okay, but not in lethal doses,” Steinbrück added.
CDU has been mentioning in the campaign the “first shoots” seen in southern Europe. But the Social Democrats insist that the ruling party is not being honest with voters by saying that a third aid package or a haircut will not be needed, because ” the crisis is far from being over”, and it “could strike again with renewed force.” The Marshall Plan helped Germany back on its feet, and now Germans must extend the same sense of obligation to Europe, said Steinbrück.
Furthermore, the low interest rate policy is hurting savers significantly, he added, while an effective regulation of banks is still to come.
Angela’s unwillingness to have German taxpayers foot the bill for the euro zone, her reassuring image and her body language are obviously decisive assets — as was her necklace in the colours of the German flag she wore the other night But the SPD candidate’s ability to try and change her narrative, attack well, and hold his customarily sharp manner under control went down well with the voters. According a survey taken immediately after the show ended, if Germans were to vote directly for the chancellor, Merkel would get 48% of the votes and Steinbrück 45%, who thus reduced the “likeability” gap between himself and Merkel by 17 percentage points (against 55 to 25 before the show). Peer came dangerously close to Angela. Another interesting result of the debate was that 52% of undecided voters preferred Steinbrück to the Chancellor, which scored only 36%.
As boring as the German parliamentary election may appear, all Europe waits with bated breath for the vote of 62 million Germans on September 22.
