Back to the future?

The change in US-Iran relations re-establishes post WWII conditions in the Middle East and could end up sidelining the Saudis.

The Middle East is disintegrating, along with the balance of power in place since World War II. Perhaps we shall never have the same Syria, Iraq, Arabian Peninsula or Northern Africa as they still appear today on our geographical maps, which are becoming outdated after several wars and even current events, such as the advance of Islamic State (IS) in Mesopotamia and the conflicts in Yemen and Libya. But what about Iran?

The 30 June deadline for the nuclear deal with the P5+1 group (the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia and China) is an important goal as it suggests that improved relations between Washington and Tehran are possible. And while it will not bring the two countries back to the old alliance of the days of the Shah, it might reshuffle the cards of the Middle Eastern strategic game – though to what extent? If the wall of distrust between Tehran and Washington came tumbling down, the repercussions could be as positive as the effects of the 1979 rift – with the rise of Imam Khomeini’s Islamic Revolution – were negative.

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