A new study published in Science shows that rising temperature and changing water patterns are major destabilizing factors that can increase the risk of conflict in Africa.
The report was carried out by two researchers from the Department Agricultural & Resource Economics at UC Berkeley, who have drawn their own conclusions based on the analysis of statistical data from a 2009 study, besides reviewing more than 100 other studies on the social and economic impacts of climate change.
The 2009 study claimed that the risks related to the outbreak of armed conflict in Africa would grow by about 54%, causing over 393,000 battle deaths by 2030, if future temperature trends continue.
In the current research into the link between climate and the increase of conflicts in Africa, the two scholars who have developed this study, Tamma Carleton and Solomon Hsiang, have determined that rising temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa since 1980 have raised the risk of conflict by 11%.
According to the two researchers, although climate is clearly not the only factor that influences social dynamics and economic performance, new quantitative measurements reveal that it is a major element, often with first order consequences.
Climate change is considered one of the causes of the outbreak of civil conflict in Syria and also of the American Civil War. In addition, it is important to remember that a report published in June 2007 by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), revealed that the degree of change in climate recorded in Northern Darfur had virtually unprecedented impacts, closely linked with the conflict in the same region.
A few days after the release of the UNEP study, the current outgoing general secretary of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon did not hesitate to consider that the Darfur conflict began as an ecological crisis, arising at least in part from climate change.
However, critics argue that such arguments risk promoting “climate reductionism” and allowing leaders and other political actors to defer blame. In this regard, Carleton and Hsiang point out that in the late 19th century, theories about the effects of climate were used to justify European colonial expansion.
The research also identified the climatic trends that have fostered the increasing spread of HIV and raised infant mortality rates in Africa, in addition to determining that the changing climate will reduce crop yields in the continent by about 20% by 2050.
In the last decade, rising temperatures in Africa has been particularly strong. Because of this phenomenon, every year four million hectares of forests have disappeared with a double average compared to the rest of the world, while 50% of the glaciers in Uganda are receding and in Senegal urbanization is causing extreme reduction in green areas.
All this is happening despite the fact that African countries, still poorly developed, have contributed only a very small part of historic greenhouse gases accumulation through carbon emissions (less than 2.5% between 1980 and 2005).
Nevertheless, they remain the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with significant consequences on development and economic growth, since the climatic uncertainty is a barrier to investment, complicating long-term planning and hampering infrastructure projects.
Natural disasters caused by global warming can have a significant impact on commercial performance, which will be particularly disadvantageous for many African countries, where agriculture is the main source of income.
Higher temperatures, the drying up of soils, increased pest and disease pressure, increased desertification in the Sahara region, floods, deforestation and erosion are all signs that climate change is already happening and represents one of the greatest environmental, social and economic threats facing Africa
Efforts to reduce these effects include international projects for the restoration of 100 million hectares (about the size of the UK) of forest across the continent and commitments to reduce emissions of harmful gases.
However, Carleton and Hsiang believe that politicians should pay more attention to global warming to prevent new conflicts. The results are evident in African countries such as Zimbabwe and Ethiopia, which are suffering the effects of severe drought caused by El Niño.
