In 2006, Syria faced the first big water crisis of recent years. Three years later, wheat and barley yields decreased by one half and by two thirds respectively. In 2011, when the unrest erupted, almost one million people were forced into food insecurity.
In a study published by Weather, Climate and Society magazine in 2014, the climate expert Peter Gleik wrote that “water and climatic conditions have played a direct role in the deterioration of Syria’s economic conditions”. At least one million people had supposedly moved from rural areas to cities like Damascus, Aleppo and Homs before the civil war broke out, setting up the perfect environment for spreading discontent.
In 2007, the secretary-general of the United Nations, Ban-Ki Moon, referred to the war in Darfur, Sudan, as the first conflict triggered by climate change. Even Barack Obama has repeatedly underlined the links between global warming and wars.
In Yemen, the rise in temperature has exacerbated the chronic water scarcity. About two thirds of the population have no access to clean water supplies . Climate change and ever lower rainfall are steadily worsening the situation.
Water scarcity has impacted on yields in Yemen too. The deterioration of food production and the clashes between the warring sides have contributed to undermining the conditions of civilians on the ground, making them unbearable.
In recent years, many studies have been carried out to determine whether climate change and global warming have been the direct causes of some of the conflicts that have been raging in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. Countries like Iran, Turkey and Jordan have suffered the same extreme conditions as Syria, Yemen, Mali or Afghanistan, without this resulting in a civil war.
Climate emergencies can be the occasion to build bridges between different factions or countries. Dr. Vesselin Popovski, Senior Academic Programme Officer and head of the United Nations University Peace and Security Section, argues that there is an indirect link between climate change and conflict.“When people face climate dangers or scarcity, they may decide to fight, but similarly they may decide to co-operate. If we take the 2004 tsunami in Southeast Asia for example, what it produced was more cooperation among states and peace in Aceh.”
A striking example of cooperation comes from the Sahel region in Africa. Scientists estimate that within fiver years, Lake Chad will no longer exist. It borders Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon and Niger, and originally it covered a surface of 25000 km2. Today, it’s approximately 2000km2.
For those who claim that water crises and desertification will be the causes of wars in the future, this area will be the stage of the next war. At least 20 million people live by fishing and other activities related to the lake. Their number will reach 25 million in 2020.
Moreover, a low intensity conflict has been already going on there: the one against Boko Haram. A series of studies conducted by the United States Institute for Peace reveal how desertification and water scarcity have badly affected the population in Lake Chad area. Nevertheless, they also indicate that climate change hasn’t been directly responsible for the rise of Boko Haram. They blame the lack of prospects and jobs, together with mistrust for the Nigerian government, perceived by many as having introduced a foreign army.
The case of Lake Chad is remarkable for how cooperation among states and different realities has played an active role. Since 1964, the Lake Chad Basin Commission (LCBC) has operated in the region, promoting different projects for the revitalization and safeguarding of the basin and working with various international organizations like the UN and the European Union. The commission is composed of representatives of the four countries that border the lake, together with Sudan, Libya and Central African Republic.
Given the disastrous condition of the basin, this commission has been subjected to criticism. In 2002, at Yaoundé, Cameroon, the LCBC drew up what is probably its most ambitious plan. Water coming from the Ubangi river would be redirected into the basin, to recover the standard level. However, the water pumping has not started yet, because of the lack of structures, money and organization
Even if global warming and environmental deterioration are burning issues now and for the years to come, we can’t consider them as the origins of the recent conflicts. However, we can’t rule out that they will be in the future. What is certain is that the only way forward isthe one that leads to cooperation among states and different actors wherever possible.
“If we want to reduce the level of violence in other places, then it would be more efficient to focus on these factors: to bring people out of abject poverty, to provide them with the technology that loosens the connection between climate and survival, to reduce corruption, and so forth, rather than on preventing climate change”, Andrew Solow, senior scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute in Massachusetts said to the Guardian.
In 2006, Syria faced the first big water crisis of recent years. Three years later, wheat and barley yields decreased by one half and by two thirds respectively. In 2011, when the unrest erupted, almost one million people were forced into food insecurity.
