In the Sunday referendum on the peace accord hammered out between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia the No camp won with 50.2%. The stunning result called into question what was supposed to become the D-Day of disarmament and demobilization of the guerrillas who have fought the longest war in the Western hemisphere.
The agreements negotiated in Cuba over four years between President Juan Manuel Santos and the leader of the FARC, Rodrigo Londoño Echeverri aka “Timochenko”, were signed on Monday in the historic colonial city of Cartagena with a pen made from a bullet in a ceremony that included Ban Ki-moon, John Kerry and 15 Latin American presidents.
The accord rejected — a “piece of art” according to former International Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo — outlined a long and complex mechanism for demobilizing the now 5800 guerrillas and delivering their weapons within zones protected by the UN, for sentencing those who committed minor crimes (but not for those who don’t confess their crimes) to community service instead of prison time. It was not clear however if killings were going to be considered a minor or a major crime.
In a country where 60% of the population is a war victim, either in person or through a close relative, Timochenko’s plea to be forgiven by all victims “for all the pain that we caused” was not enough. The likelihood that the FARC would escape any punishment and be rewarded “with impunity” after a conflict that has left 267,000 dead, 46,000 disappeared, 29,000 kidnapped, 11,500 children recruited as soldiers and a huge number of people tortured and abused sexually, prompted many Colombians to vote No.
Former President Alvaro Uribe, who led the No campaign, said that the deal was a “masked amnesty” for the many concessions it granted to the ex-combatants, including the possibility to assume public office and form a political force. According to a recent Ipsos-Napoleón Franco survey, 75% of Colombians do not want guerrilla leaders to participate in political life and 88% want them to serve jail terms.
Among the explanations for the rejection is the vote of younger Colombians because they did not experience the worst days of the war, and FARC itself, observers say, because their leaders did “not apologize in a timely fashion, nor did they provide any details as to how all the money they earned with the drug trade will be allocated. Many Colombians do not understand why these “multi-billion dollar drug traffickers” will need public funds to reintegrate into society.
Also, “the government campaign, which revisited the past, the massacres, the violence and the suffering, failed. They should have aimed it at the future, at the hope of a better world,” political analyst Fernando Ceperda said on TV.
Why then did Santos make this huge effort to negotiate an accord — supported by the US and the UN — that grants too many concessions to the FARC?
Since the 2000s, Colombia’s economy has kept growing despite the war, lifting 23% of the population out of poverty from an initial 50% in 13 years, according to the World Bank. The slightly easier economic conditions also reduced the appeal of joining the rebel forces.
The number of guerrillas declined in recent years to a third from about 18,000 in the early decades, whilst the Armed Forces doubled their troops to 480,000. The government was thus able to contain the guerrillas politically and socially in recent years, but could not definitively defeat them militarily. Despite much progress, the tropical forest where guerrillas can hide and resist for long periods of time is vast. The military stalemate could have lasted for years.
Another reason was the difficulty in defeating the drug economy created by the FARC and other groups. They are “the strongest cocaine cartel in the world,” said Senator Alfredo Rangel, another opponent of the agreement, speaking to NTN24. “In recent years they quadrupled their revenue twice: as a result of the devaluation of the Colombian peso and by doubling the sown area of coca. Drug trafficking was a real lucrative business and not just political financing.” Rangel said that the accord is an opportunity for “money laundering”.
Growth made Colombia a potential candidate for OECD membership, but only if it got rid of the costs of the war: lack of infrastructure development and environmental protection in vast areas, an uncertain investment climate and corruption, on top of drug trafficking.
The US understood this well (it consumes most of the cocaine produced in Colombia), and created Plan Colombia, pledging 450 million initially and 500 million a year potentially; so did the EU, which donated 80 million and offered credit for a further 450 million; and the IMF which launched an 11 billion dollar credit line.
In any event, the effort to regain control of the country will be a herculean task demanding $31 billion. It will include converting coca crops by providing funds and support to farmers, strengthening democracy and local public institutions, removing land mines, and reintegrating thousands of adults and children into society. The critical challenge is still reducing inequalities, “because, as the Colombian experience shows, economic inequality fans the flames of social and political instability,” said José Antonio Campo, a professor at Columbia University and UN advisor.
The violence left a legacy of chronic poverty, according to economist Andrés Moya of Americas Quarterly. “Sixty percent of the displaced population is under the poverty line, and 40% below that of extreme poverty, partly because of the fear of starting any economic activity.”
So what now?
- The ceasefire will be maintained. “The FARC maintain their desire for peace and will build it only with words,” Timochenko said after the vote.
- The delivery of weapons and the gathering of the guerrillas in the UN-controlled areas are for now frozen. Ban Ki-moon sent a special envoy to Havana to supervise the bilateral ceasefire of hostilities.
- Even the release by the FARC of child soldiers is frozen, after a first group was handled to the Red Cross last week.
- Despite international assurances, the disbursement of funds and the promised loans will require greater political clarity.
- Also the program for the conversion of crops will presumably stay frozen, as it needs many resources.
- Finally, the provisional Peace Court that was to determine the penalties for guerrillas, and to take charge of all trials related to conflict actors, that is rebels, civilians and state agents, will not come into being for now.
“I will continue to seek peace until the very last minute of my term,” said Santos. “The No vote does not mean that we should jettison the process,” said negotiator Carlos Antonio Lozada, “because peace as a fundamental right will prevent us from continuing such a painful war.”
In the Sunday referendum on the peace accord hammered out between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia the No camp won with 50.2%. The stunning result called into question what was supposed to become the D-Day of disarmament and demobilization of the guerrillas who have fought the longest war in the Western hemisphere.
