On Wednesday, June 24th, talks on the formation of the government registered a new setback, following elections, held on 18th June, for the renewal of one hundred seventy-nine members of the Folketing, the unicameral parliament of Denmark.
Talking to the public television DR, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, leader of the Venstre (Liberal) has admitted that there are many difficulties that hinder the achievement of an agreement with the right wing eurosceptics (Dansk Folkeparti). The odd man out in the talks, Anders Samuelsen, head of the Alliance of Liberals – that can rely on seven and a half percent of the vote and thirteen seats – pointed out that Venstre and eurosceptics would not have ninety seats needed for a majority coalition. Dansk Folkeparti’s leader, Thulesen Kristian Dahl, said that an agreement is not near.
The Venstre (voted by about twenty percent of the electorate) remains well below the consensus obtained by the Social Democrats led by Helle Thorning-Schmidt – at twenty-six percent – but the “blue” coalition gathered by Rasmussen conquested the podium: the percentages in the votes got by the allies of the Social Democrats, despite the eight percent and fourteen seats reached on their left by the Red Green list (Enhedslisten-De Rød-Grønne) are not enough to form a new progressive government.
So the Venstre returns in the lead with Lars Løkke Rasmussen (who had already been Prime Minister, replacing, in 2009, Anders Fogh Rasmussen when he became NATO secretary general) and despite not having passed twenty percent, he can count on allies whose sum would allow the formation of a majority coalition, actually an impervious path: on various subjects – especially European Union, Immigration and Budget – groups that until recently have joined to the Liberals in opposition, after elections’ results declared that they will not seek agreement on key issues, launching instead ultimatum, which does not make it look viable a cooperation between the Dansk Folkeparti (DF) and the Conservatives in the same government.
The populist Danish People’s Party, currently risen to twenty percent of the vote, advocates more autonomy from the EU and the reduction of immigration, but the Conservatives are committed to keep the country in the wake of the socialist liberal Scandinavian systems (Det Konservative Folkeparti – similar to other parties conservatives in the Nordic region – about welfare, civil society and the environment, has advanced social agendas: this time the Conservatives only got six seats, but they could act as kingmaker). Regarding the budget, the Danish People’s Party urges for an increase of almost one percentage point in government spending, while the Alliance of Liberals (the “Ny Alliance” launched in the Danish political landscape since 2007 by politicians from Radikale Vestre, the liberal left Socialist), clarified however that it will join a coalition only if the government plan is expected to cut spending.
If you want to keep to the facts, the political system in Denmark is proportional and the Social Democrats, although now outgoing from the government, are still the largest party, they have even gained two percentage points and three deputies more than in 2011, so the liberal Venstre in order to form a new government has two choices, to build a majority in which continuously mediate between forces who look with hostility to each other (the new anti-austerity Right of Dansk Folkeparti on one side and the moderate pro social welfare of the Alliance of Liberals and Conservatives on another) or to bet on the creation of a minority government, therefore seeking agreements on every issue every time.
In both the suggested cases is conceivable, according to the recent history of the Nordic country, that Lars Løkke Rasmussen and his ministers will work often together with the Social Democrats, Liberal and Socialist opponents, also in order to limit the influence of some allies (distant on political views, on many issues, more than the social democrats opponents). From the weekend following the elections, Rasmussen launched separate talks, during which the Conservatives have said from the outset that they do not intend to be part of the government team, so as to walk out of any negotiation with the Dansk Folkeparti, which presented its proposals as ultimatum, giving the impression that both parties are well aware that, in a system that relies entirely on the parliament, a waiver of ministerial posts can offer valuable counterpart: the influence on individual pieces of legislation, to guide them in the direction proposed to voters during the years of the opposition, years which could be replaced, as far as the Conservatives and the populists of the DF are concerned, by more years of opposition, but now in support of an executive lead by Venstre and dependent on the support of those who will help to define the action. The Danish People’s Party has already supported “from outside” center-right cabinets between 2001 and 2011, so its presence near the government area is not something completely new.
Of course, now that the continent is already in challenging circumstances with regard to the relations between the EU and some member states, the relevance now achieved by a populist right-wing party could create problems for the new Prime Minister, concerning the action of coordination between EU countries on immigration and on budget, especially if the Dansk Folkeparti were to join a majority coalition: that prospect at the time, looking at the Danish policy with its established mechanisms especially in the fragmented court of the Center-Right, however does not looks very easy.
@AldoCiummo
