The two Chinas cautiously start seeing one another in public, sort of…
The first official direct talks at government- level between China and Taiwan since the end of the civil war in 1949 and Mao Zedong’s victory, took place on 13 February. The head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, Zhang Zhijun, and the head of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, Wang Yu-chi chose the Chinese city of Nanjing as the location for their three-day meeting.
It’s not that there haven’t been contacts during these past 65 years: icy relations between Beijing and Taipei began to thaw around 1992 with the onset of trading and then when they reached a ‘consensus’ agreement under which the two parties undertook to both recognise the principle that there is only ‘one China’ – a flexible concept that both sides view in their own way.
Since then great strides have been taken in the relationship between the two capitals. Until ten years ago there were no direct flights connecting them. Today, trade across the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is worth around $200 billion a year. “There have been other meetings in the past”, noted Jean Pierre Cabestan, a political science professor at Hong Kong Baptist University, “but never between ministers and not in China.”
However, some observers suggest caution, even if the meeting seems to have yielded concrete results, at least on paper. Apart from agreement on increasing cross-strait trade exchanges and the creation of a reciprocal health insurance scheme for students, the main thrust of the talks was about instigating formal offices of representation.
This decision could effectively draw the two countries, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China, closer, though neither recognise the other and both claim to represent China’s ‘true’ identity. In practical terms, Beijing strongly opposes third country recognition of both the PRC and Taiwan: as things stand the island only has diplomatic missions in 23 countries in the world. Last November, those ranks where further whittled down when Gambia expelled Taipei’s official representatives from its territory without any kind of advance notice. Virtually the entire international community prefers to build diplomatic ties with economically powerful Beijing. Without changing the status quo and rattling the nerves of the PRC – which still has missiles pointed at Taipei – Taiwanese diplomats over the years have been working to strengthen their presence in international organisations, essentially with Beijing’s approval.
This is the most tangible result of the ‘flexible’ diplomacy developed by Taiwan’s president, Ma Ying-Jeou. For Beijing, making peace with Taiwan at a time when China has few friends in Asia is a strategic move to deflect criticisms about its aggressiveness and reassure neighbours about its expansionist aims.
Moreover, China and Taiwan share approximately the same outlook on the recent territorial disputes between Beijing on the one hand and Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines on the other, concerning lands in the East and South China Seas. The reconciliation process is the result of a long journey. Normalisation of relations did not come out of the blue: the process began in 2008 when Ma Ying-Jeou was elected President of Taiwan. This led to an initial thawing of relations after the years when the island was headed by the leader of the independence faction, Chen Shui-Bian.
Even if it seems unlikely that Beijing will withdraw the missiles aimed at Taiwan, nonethe less the future seems to herald more active cooperation, increased trade and a probable meeting between PRC’s president Xi Jinping and his Taiwanese counterpart, Ma. The Taipei leader hopes to meet the Chinese president before the end of his mandate, perhaps even at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to take place in Beijing this October. President Ma though is losing support at home due to his government’s failure to achieve significant economic results, and there is a chance that in two years’ time China could be dealing with an entity that is less willing to accept the tacit agreement whereby Taiwan will never formally claim independence. Perhaps this is why President Xi accelerated the process that led to the Nanjing talks.
Progress to date depends largely on the subtle shades of meaning Taiwan gives to the joint ‘one China’ policy. According to the island’s new representative in Rome, Stanley Kao, the correct word for the Taipei government’s current approach is “reconciliation”. “The majority of the Taiwanese population”, says Kao, “is in favour of the status quo: against independence, against the use of military force and against unification. Any talk of a fullyfledged peace deal is premature. In the meantime, the two countries should focus on extending economic cooperation and trade”. Of course there is resistance, even on the island. On 19 March, Taipei students demonstrated in front of Taiwan’s parliament against its initial approval of the trade agreement with Beijing. As far as the missiles are concerned, Kao believes “Beijing has no pretext whatsoever to engage in any rash action against us. But we don’t take anything for granted.” In any case, China and Taiwan share many common interests.
Any likelihood of an outright clash, for the moment at least, seems consigned to the past.
