Nurnberg – The run-down to the Bavarian vote for the Land Parliament was a wet one. A pouring rain spoiled the last day rallies of all parties in the quintessential German town of Nurnberg. The Sunday Land elections yielded though a crispy clear result: CSU, the sister party of Angela Merkel’s CDU, won an absolute majority. After five-years of black-yellow coalition, with a soaring 47.7%, black takes all, including 120,000 votes from its former liberal-conservative coalition partner, FDP. The flop of the latter to a meager 3% means that Horst Seehofer, the leader of CSU in Bavaria, can govern alone.
Bavaria is culturally not an average Land in Germany, as it is characterized by a strong Catholic majority. The implications for next Sunday’s general elections are therefore not as clear-cut as last weekend’s vote.
For Queen Angela, according to the last Spiegel’s cover portray of her, a collapse of FDP at the federal level could mean the need for a Grosse Koalition with the social-democrats, a solution that none of the two biggest parties dream of.
That could happen the more so if newcomer AfD, the anti-euro party, succeeded in overcoming the 5% hurdle. “Their constituency is rather middle-old aged, and since they are against Europe, they will hardly get the vote of the young”, said Frederick Popp, of the Council for Integration in Nurnberg.
Also the Grünen are having difficulties in attracting the vote of the young — and admitted to a downcast result in Bavaria (-1%). Their campaign departed from the environmental and energy themes introducing some confusion among voters. “Eating less meat is good, but making a meat-less day mandatory in schools… I don’t know… I won’t vote them”, said shop girl Anika as she smoked with a workmate by the side door of the store.
“Some of our proposals were misinterpreted,” explained to East magazine Verena Osgyan, green Spitzenkandidat in Bavaria. “We stand for a real energy turn, and there would be no lobby for this in the government if the Greens were left out of the coalition. We are needed to make sure that we don’t go back to using coal — or nuclear energy — massively, as Mrs Merkel hints to want to do.” The Green corrected their message in the last few days, focusing again on clean energy and the environment, education and childcare, but voters in this Land might also have been scared by the Green’s tax hike plans.
Why is the German voter so full all fear? “Germans are being scared [by the incumbent Chancellor’s] narrative that if they go for a change, they will plunge into an abyss like Greece or Portugal. The truth is that aside from the rich, Germans are not doing well. One in two retirees gets less than €700 a month. In Germany 6 million people working full-time don’t earn enough to live on, and depend on social security,” said talking to East SPD ccandidate Arif Tasdelen.
“Merkel’s only real reform was the healthcare reform, according to which everybody has to have private health insurance, also those who earn less than €800 a month, who will get paid back from the State €5 per month! Another four years of such a stalling would bring Germany down. We can’t afford that,” added Tasdelen.
Calling on Germans in the lowest fourth of earners is also Linke. The Left party lost about a percentage point in Bavaria, but in their case this is not a proxy for coming Sunday’s vote, as their strongholds are in the north-eastern Länder. “That is correct, we want a mandatory minimum wage, also because it’s not true that a minimum wage means fewer jobs. The narrative goes that unemployment is low,” said speaking to East Linke Landkandidat Stefan Stroheker, “but this is statistical window dressing: the official unemployment number does not include people over 58 that lost their job, nor those who earn just a symbolic €1 per hour, nor those who are sick or receiving professional training. The truth is that the gap among lower earners and retirees and the rich has become wider and wider. We have to get people to cast their votes. It is not a good sign for democracy when voters, and especially young voters, believe that politics cannot solve their problems anymore,” Stroheker added.
“The problem with young people is that many are undecided. If they don’t make up their mind by next Sunday, the might not turn out to vote at all”, explains Mrs Fuller, dashing along the Old City holyday market. “My son and many of his friends haven’t made up their mind yet.”
“Sure enough,” said Tasdelen, “the fact that 40% of the voters say they will decide on the 22nd whom to vote, and another 30% could stay at home, is a big risk. On the other hand, we have never had so many requests for the forms that allow people to vote per mail. This means that electoral participation could be much higher than in past elections.”
As a matter of fact, the parties in the center-left — SPD, Greens and Left — are all hoping for a headwind, on the wake of the Bavarian vote, which gave new clues to the coalition’s game. Following FDP’s downspin, another Grosse Koalition with the social-democrats could be the only option for CDU. Peer Steinbrück, Merkel’s main opponent, seems to be preparing the ground for this outlook, while maintaining officially the goal of a red-green coalition. He knows all too well that the votes of the undecided will likely go to the main two parties. By allowing the publication of a controversial photo of him giving middle finger, he took a risk. But in the following couple days, Angela performed worse in the polls.
Nurnberg – The run-down to the Bavarian vote for the Land Parliament was a wet one. A pouring rain spoiled the last day rallies of all parties in the quintessential German town of Nurnberg. The Sunday Land elections yielded though a crispy clear result: CSU, the sister party of Angela Merkel’s CDU, won an absolute majority. After five-years of black-yellow coalition, with a soaring 47.7%, black takes all, including 120,000 votes from its former liberal-conservative coalition partner, FDP. The flop of the latter to a meager 3% means that Horst Seehofer, the leader of CSU in Bavaria, can govern alone.
