After the elections in Austria, Holland and France, prefaced by the not obviously predictable outcome of the Hungarian referendum, we can safely say that the populist advance has suffered a serious setback in Europe.
Even the polls in Germany appear to indicate that the traditional parties will hold their ground in the country leading the Union (elections on 24 September). It is only in Italy that uncertainty rules the day: even the election date is still being debated (September 2017 or May 2018?), and Beppe Grillo’s populist movement has both markets and public opinion on edge about which rules will apply to these general elections. How can this be? If one were to judge based on the 5 Star Movement’s management of the capital city (the most important challenge faced by the Movement thus far), the most moderate appraisal one year after Virginia Raggi, the 5 Star Movement’s mayor, took her seat on the Capitol Hill would be a “no show”. Nevertheless, the polls for the upcoming regional elections in Sicily predict a resounding victory for the Movement, relegating traditional parties into a humiliating minority. The Sicilian case is emblematic: on the one hand, there’s a protest vote against the century-old political degradation on the island that has led the major parties (from the Christian Democrats onwards) to accept the support of mafia flankers, a compromise that no longer holds water given the much more painstaking and anonymous (and therefore not subject to blackmail) control that Internet and social networks enable. Another part of the 30% awarded to the 5SM at a national level can be explained by the profound distress caused by the long and crippling financial crisis that has heavily affected the social fabric in the South, where youth unemployment stands at 60%.
Finally, the decisive component that has transformed the populist proposal into a credible alternative is the disenchantment with traditional Italian politics, which has proven itself incapable of any kind of reliability or vision, and lacks any believable personalities: not on the right, and least of all on the left.
The right is still hamstrung by the need to find a successor for Berlusconi, which hinders any modern or innovative developments; the screaming post-fascist and post-Northern league extremists can’t hope to pick up his legacy. The left is meanwhile a victim of its own outdated 1970s recipes (with the older leaders now cast adrift), which even the working class considers obsolete. It is also dealing with Renzi’s liberalist attitudes, based on a clear-headed analysis of the problems and valid reform proposals, but heavily weighed down by an excessively brash and culturally provincial leadership that seems incapable of changing its spots after three years of political and psychological dictatorship.
The handling of the electoral law reform is a case in point: a few weeks before the vote (I’m writing in June), Parliament is still unable to find consensus on a law that might suit the times, and is desperately trying to pass regulations that retain the parties’ stranglehold over the electoral lists, with repercussions that can’t help but boost the populist protests.
The only hope… an Italian Macron, who could combine an appropriate assessment of the country’s difficulties with the courage to put forward adequate solutions while communicating clearly and usefully with the country. As the French fairy tale has taught us, populism’s can’t be fought on its own terms. It takes a bold, intelligent, modern and convincing alternative vision. Good luck with that Italy, and good luck Europe!
Here’s waiting for Macron…
After the elections in Austria, Holland and France, prefaced by the not obviously predictable outcome of the Hungarian referendum, we can safely say that the populist advance has suffered a serious setback in Europe.
