He’s said to secretly hope for Britain to leave the EU, to wait for Brexit as the perfect gift for him, to be happy if tomorrow the “Leave” wins, but so far the only one who remained silent about the referendum is Vladimir Putin.
To be true, at the end he expressed his opinion on the referendum: a shrug. “I want to say it is none of our business, it is the business of the people of the UK”, he said answering a question at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum. “I have my own opinion on this matter“, he added, refusing to say what it is.
The weirdest thing is that, among the many leaders and heads of state who gave their opinion on the referendum for UK to leave or remain in European Union – like Barack Obama and Angela Merkel among all – Vladimir Putin has been blamed of having machinations and hidden agenda, without ever saying anything.
Is that paranoia, is that Russophobia? I’m not sure of it. And Putin’s silence could be more explanatory than we think.
Putin, the bogeyman
Of course, the image of Putin rubbing his hands to the idea of an EU without the UK is really exaggerated.
But this is different from saying that the options on the ballot are indifferent to Moscow.
Putin’s silence does not necessarily mean that he will not welcome the Brexit. Putin is not used to be tactful and, on the other hand, he’s used to leave more options opened. To understand why this time he decided not to have a say on such a relevant issue, just see the referendum campaign in the UK.
His name has been used as a bogeyman by “Remain” supporters, as if to say that the sad times of a Brexit would be also darkened be the Russian threat. Garry Kasparov expressed brilliantly this idea on the British paper, The Guardian: “If Putin wants the UK to leave the EU, the obvious choice must be to remain in”.
The “Leave” front, on the other hand, is populated by figures like Nigel Farage, the leader of the nationalist party UKIP, which has repeatedly expressed admiration for Putin as “a brilliant operator who had played the whole Syria thing”. Another party member, Diane James, said the Russian president is a “a very strong leader and a nationalist, who has issues with the way the EU encouraged a change of government in the Ukraine which he felt put at risk a Russian population in that country”. Putin, who plays of tactics rather than strategy, refrained from an endorsement for the “Leave”, knowing that it would provide more arguments to the “Remain” supporters.
Putin’s friends in Europe
I do not know if the Brexit will be a perfect gift for Putin, as Kasparov wrote. Certainly, it would be a gift for the “Remain” front if he expresses his opinion. And that’s why he is silent.
Because Brexit won’t certainly be for Russia that godsend that some want us to believe, but it surely help the Kremlin rhetoric. The message that the European Union is not such a great place, if there are those who want to get out of it, would be trumpeted by Russian media. A severe blow to the already battered European soft power on the former Soviet countries. Just look at the RT State channel for about ten minutes to realize this.
In addition, a Europe weakened in its political unity is a headache less for the Russian revanchism. The action of the Kremlin on the other half of the continent, moreover, goes in this direction. Suspicions that the Kremlin should fund some European far-right parties, like Golden Dawn in Greece and Jobbik in Hungary, became more an evidence when Marine Le Pen has confirmed that his Front National took money from Russia. And when the Farage’s UKIP blocked a scrutiny of party donations, as part of a drive to halt Russian influence in Europe.
The semi-clandestine foreign policy of Putin in Europe presses the right buttons, the anti-European movements, the media linked to nationalist far-rights, the fear for same-sex unions and that of immigrants. The small and big rivalry between the Union members, the same ones that are closing borders and raise barbed wire. The Grexit and the Brexit.
Among Putin’s friends in Europe, in short, among those who would like closer ties with Moscow and those who would like to import Putinism in our democracies, there are very few who can be called pro-Europe. Hard to believe it’s just a coincidence.
@daniloeliatweet
He’s said to secretly hope for Britain to leave the EU, to wait for Brexit as the perfect gift for him, to be happy if tomorrow the “Leave” wins, but so far the only one who remained silent about the referendum is Vladimir Putin.
