If integration into labour markets and local communities works, migration can be a great opportunity. Therefore, integration policies – such as language training, professional education and initiatives to adapt skills to business demands – are key to promote a virtuous circle: more migrants finding jobs would mean less public expenditure and more people paying taxes and social security contributions.
In the age of globalization, barriers to migration are a threat not only to economic growth but also to sustainability, as globally the population is ageing. While there were only 14 million people over the age of 80 living in 1950, there are over 100 million today and projections indicate there will be nearly 400 million people over 80 by 2050. With fertility rate collapsing to below replacement levels in all regions except Africa, experts are predicting rapidly rising dependency ratios and a decline in the OECD workforce from around 800 million to close to 600 million by 2050. The problem is particularly acute in North America, Europe and Japan.
As said above, the current migration crisis is mainly fed by the complex situation in the Middle East. However, there are also other forces that will ensure that immigration into Europe will be an issue long in the future, well beyond the end of the Syrian war. While Europe is a wealthy, ageing continent with a stagnant population, the populations of Africa, the Middle East and South Asia are younger, poorer and rising fast. While in 1900 European countries represented about 25% of the world’s population, today the EU accounts for about 7% of the global population. By contrast, Africa accounts for more than 1bn people today and, according to the UN, it is expected to account for almost 2.5bn by 2050.
According to the European Commission, aging is one of the greatest social and economic challenges of the 21st century for European societies. 27 of the 30 countries and territories globally with the largest 65-and-older shares are in Europe. In 1950, according to the U.N, 8% of the Old Continent’s population was 65 or older; by 1990 that share had risen to 12.7%, and it was estimated to be 17.6% in 2015. The European Commission forecasts that the population of Germany – the strongest European economy – will shrink from 81.3 million in 2013 to 70.8 million in 2060. Moreover, the European Commission estimates that by 2025 more than 20% of Europeans will be 65 or over, with a rapid increase in numbers of over-80s.
Such developments put pressures on European welfare systems, public finances and economies as the number of working people decline just as the number of retired workers increases. Some analysts argue that the influx of migrants could be a long-term benefit to an aging Europe, renewing the labour supply of younger workers on whom the continent’s retirees depend.
According to the World Bank, the real policy question for the countries of Central Europe and the Baltics today is not whether to accept migrants or not but, rather, how to turn the challenge of today’s refugee crisis into an opportunity. Migrants have the potential to both alleviate declining numbers of workers and boost innovation through bringing fresh ideas and perspectives. In light of this situation, it is crucial that the public opinion is adequately informed about the benefits coming from migrants and their integration in the European societies.
