Former Managing Editor of Eastwest online. He also writes for Il Corriere della Sera and Panorama. Formerly at Linkiesta, Eurointelligence, Il Riformista. Named among the top 100 Foreign Policy “Twitterati” in the economics sections for being “the essential follow for breaking news on Europe’s economic crisis.” He has over 37,000 followers on Twitter (@FGoria). He won the 2013 Economics’ Club Journalism Award and the 2013 State Street Italy Journalism Award.
Emmanuel Macron is the new French President. The outcome has matched the expectations of all French pollsters. The threat of a presidency headed by Marine Le Pen and consequently the Front National is averted. And now all commentators and analysts will write and say that with En marche!, Macron’s movement at the helm, Europe can be rebuilt, all problems will be solved and so on and so forth. No. This is not the case. Unfortunately, Europe is by no means safe. And it won’t be at least until the traditional parties come to terms with their defeats, which have taken place in France just as they have elsewhere. Until this realisation is fully taken on board, Europe will never be safe.
Donald Trump will be the 45th president of the United States of America. In the event that he actually keeps his campaign promises, he is sure to make history as the political figure in the twenty first century that snuffed out any glimmer of hope in the fight against global climate change. Trump’s denial that CO2 emissions cause global warming has startled the scientific community and part of the United States administration.
We were all wrong: journalists, analysts, pollsters and financial operators. The majority of us were completely wrong in our assessment of what was happening at the heart of the United States. Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections is not only a defeat for the democrats but a rejection of the established way of doing politics that hitherto was relatively staid and restrained. It is also a defeat for those whose job it is to report and comment on the facts, making them accessible to the widest possible audience. It is a defeat for the markets, which had more or less taken a Hillary Clinton victory for granted. Those who had thought along similar lines had a rude awakening when they opened their eyes to the world on November 9.
Annihilation. This is the sensation today on 15 July 2016 following the latest attack in France. A vile and symbolic massacre, a barbaric act striking predictably at the soft targets that for some time US intelligence has identified as the latest objectives of Islamic State terrorism. Let’s not kid ourselves; this will not be the last attack, unless some decisions, hitherto considered too unpopular, are taken.
WASHINGTON DC - There were two main questions tormenting the USA as its citizens turned in for the night reading that, according to the BBC, the United Kingdom had voted to leave the European Union. The first, more obvious, point concerned the economic repercussions: the real costs of leaving, costs that could have an impact, and in some cases already have, on the international financial markets from Seoul to Tokyo, and not forgetting London itself. The second, less immediate point concerns the future of the entire European Union, which is now set to lose one of its leading players. This latter point is causing shivers of apprehension everywhere.
It is always better to wait a few days before commenting on such a horrific episode as that which occurred last Friday in Paris. We did exactly this following the Charlie Hebdo attack and we decided to do the same on this occasion. With almost 130 dead and more than 350 wounded, Paris has never been so vulnerable, Europe has never been so divided, a conflict has never been so exceptional. Life goes on, life must go on, but first it is necessary to take stock of some points. The first is that we need to act, or rather counterattack,but we must do so in a rational and clinical way.
Lausanne is a small town that up until yesterday was known for being the Olympic Capital, seeing as it hosts the International Olympic Committee. From now on it will be known as the home of an agreement between Iran and the 5+1 Group (US, Russia, China, France, Great Britain + Germany) on the nuclear issue. A victory for Washington and Tehran, a defeat for Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the other Sunni countries. A victory also for that purpose driven diplomacy that should enable Iran to develop its own economy and the US to monitor the Iranian uranium enrichment program step by step. Yet there are still unknown quantities in the balance.
Whatever the outcome, there's something out-of-kilter about the diplomatic clash over the Ukraine. Just think. On the one side there's Russia, with its president Vladimir Putin trying and hoping to get Europe and the United States bogged down in an open conflict. On the other there's the US, ready to supply Ukraine with arms. And in the background, way inthe background, stands Europe. Or what little remains of it.
Greece may be giving plenty in Europe sleepless nights but the real danger lies elsewhere. InRussia. Or to be more precise, in the mayhem Moscow is busy brewing. Ukraine is on the brink of economic collapse - its foreign exchange reserves are dwindling fast and without a loan from the International Monetary Fund it won't make it to the end of the month – and in its eastern regions the war rages on. The risk is that Vladimir Putin's plan to drag the UE into the quicksands even more than it is already, might come to fruition.
Alexis Trispras’ electoral triumph in Greece was a given. What’s less obvious are the repercussions this success might have on European politics. There are those who believe Tsipras could be the new eurozone champion, who will save it from fiscal consolidation policies. And those who, besides the gift for the catchy announcement, believe this young Greek lad has little to say. Personally, I think this latter option is the most likely.
This is no economic tale, though it does revolve around economics. Nor is it a financial narrative, despite its concerning the world of finance. What you are about to read is a story about power and politics. The setting is the Eurozone. The main character is Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank (ECB) and his many antagoniststhat could prove overwhelming.
A year ago, most financial analysts believed that the real surprises in 2014 were going to come from the eurozone. After years of neurotic, searing crises that seriously endangered the survival of the euro, a comeback was now on the cards. Well, twelve months on and the euro sector is still in the same perilous predicament.