Living in Ireland in the long term, you will notice an ambivalent relationship with the United Kingdom: in the pubs, copies of the 1916’s rebel constitution framed alongside portraits of English soccer clubs, in the public debate the understanding to the demands of the decolonized world and the long-standing alliance with London, when it comes to European policies. The referendum of June 23rd is attracting increasing interest across all of Europe, but, when you consider Ireland, to count all the changes that would result from a redefinition of the UK’s role in the EU looks a daunting task.
The Irish government stresses its respect for the British people’s choice, but it is also stating, among growing anxiety, the Dublin stance: that the UK and the rest of the community hugely benefit from the continuity in the commitment to Europe. Just a few days ago, on June 16th, the Minister for Finance of the Republic of Ireland, Michael Noonan, has pointed out that, even in case of a Brexit, Ireland will back keeping its neighbour in the common market, while his German counterpart, Wolfgang Schäuble, had stated that in case of a ‘Leave’ vote, the UK could no longer benefit from access to the European single market (unlike Norway and Switzerland, that have never been a members of the EU).
The volatile price of the pound is being carefully monitored, because, in the republic, London is the first market for the export of services, the second of goods. Meanwhile, customs duties are back in the vocabulary of the European countries, from a past that was deemed remote, if new rules are to be started from scratch, this task will realistically take at least a few years of trade negotiations and treaties, but the darker thought is another: the island of Ireland is divided by a border, about which almost nobody was thinking any more, as the Good Friday Agreement (April 1998) had set in motion a cooperation between Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom to a large extent based on the established fact that the European Union provides a shared place, different with regard to the historically contested space in the Ulster province. Dáithí Ó Ceallaigh, former Irish ambassador in London, said that the return of ‘hard borders’ within the island of Ireland would damage the partnership between the two parts of the island. The anxiety grew on 16th June, as a survey by ‘Ipsos Mori’ for ‘The Evening Standard’ has shown an advantage (53 to 47 percent) for the ‘Leave’ side, although excluding those undecided, deemed by many analysts as likely to keep UK in the EU.
Probably Northern Ireland (part of a UK where the debate about borders’ control has played a key role) couldn’t take the economic contribution it receives from the EU anymore for granted (three billion euro are already planned until 2020 in the framework of European programs ‘Peace’ e ‘Interreg’) and the autonomous province should also restructure the institutions extended to the whole island and developed within the framework of the peace agreements. Former British prime ministers John Major (Conservative) and Tony Blair (Labour) have given voice to the fear that such developments and the reintroduction of trade barriers could slow down the detente between various communities in Northern Ireland, on the background of social problems made worse by the recent economic crisis, of which dissident forces took advantage. Ulster political forces (including the republican nationalist Sinn Féin) are mainly backing staying in the EU, while the Democratic Unionist Party (loyalist protestants) is on the ‘Leave’ side, but it is widely believed that also this political group is concerned about how an exit from the EU could affect the North. Rory Best, rugby player and influential among farmers, took side in favor of the ‘Remain’ campaign: ‘Thursday 23rd June is an important date for farmers and the agrifood sector – the sportsman wrote on Twitter, from County Armagh in Northern Ireland – support them by voting to stay in the EU!‘. Eighty seven percent of the income in the agricultural sector in the province rely on the CAP (European agricultural policy), although a cut of more than ten percent of these resources, from 300 to 266 million pounds, created some resentment last year.
The government, headed by a liberal party, Fine Gael, with the support of independent candidates and the abstention of Fianna Fáil, is gathering at the Department of the Taoiseach (Prime Minister) civil servants of the main departments in order to prepare the republic to any result. This institutional action had already been initiated by a government of Fine Gael (then in coalition with Labour) in the previous term, because Dublin fears the loss of the main ally on which it has always relied since 1973, when both countries entered the EU (at the same time the European Union also welcomed Denmark, itself among states today remarkably concerned by the British referendum, although to a lesser extent than Ireland).
Another technical group brought together representatives of economic sectors, trade unions, research institutes, again in order to develop responses to an hypothetical scenario that may arise from a possible Brexit: the country is working together with the United Kingdom in infrastructure fields, including energy. It has to be taken into account that to a certain extent the Irish people will be directly involved on June 23rd, so the prime minister Enda Kenny still seeks to mobilize 600,000 that were born in the republic but are now living in the United Kingdom, then a slice of the electorate that feels close to Dublin is represented by British citizens, resident in Ireland, who can vote in the referendum, and finally there is a large factor in the vote influenced by the consequences on the island: the one million voters in Northern Ireland. Concerns about a possible exit of the neighbour from Europe is shared by the population in the Republic: a dozen of days before the referendum day, opinion polls recorded a seventy percent who would prefer to see the UK remain in the EU (only a nine percent expressed the opposite opinion, all the others ‘no opinion’) and a majority of fifty-four percent believes that eventually the ‘Leave’ vote will not pass (only twenty percent answered otherwise), the feeling in Ireland it is also clear on the effects on Europe of a potential Brexit, negative according to seventy percent of the Irish, sixty percent of which would not want a similar referendum in Dublin (only thirteen percent wishes a vote on the issue).
Also the effects that would act in the United Kingdom from Ireland are on the table, as the chief executive of Ryanair, Michael O ‘Leary, pointed out clarifying that the flight company, in the event of a Brexit, would not bring anymore in the UK half of about 1,000 jobs it plans to create starting this year, choosing instead Ireland and Germany, because of the importance of developing economic activities within the EU. O ‘Leary added that similar assessments will affect the choices of the other large international companies (who consider the cities belonging to the European market as strategic for their business) and concluded that – although he shares critical views about the functioning of the EU – the benefits of staying are crucial for the socioeconomic growth of members countries, having for example allowed to get to travel rates available to all EU citizens and to the opportunity to enhance any professional in the various countries of the continent. Among the foreign investments in the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland is well represented: Cement Roadstone Holdings, Jurys Inns, Glambia, Kerry Foods, are just some of the brands operating beyond the Irish sea.
In case of a turn towards the Brexit, then the challenge for Ireland would be to reorganize trade relations with the United Kingdom (but also to rearrange the welfare of elderly residents in either country and of young people working on both sides) while this neighbour would have to negotiate again its relationship with the EU institutions and with the rest of the world. The Irish Foreign Minister, Charlie Flanagan, said that every week one billion and two hundred in euro, goods and services, circulate between the two states. Such a profound change would lead to messy situations in Europe, mainly in the UK (and consequently in the Republic). On June 23rd, when the British citizens will state which direction their country, that has always given a lot to Europe, will take, here in Ireland the event will draw public attention as in no other part of the union.
Living in Ireland in the long term, you will notice an ambivalent relationship with the United Kingdom: in the pubs, copies of the 1916’s rebel constitution framed alongside portraits of English soccer clubs, in the public debate the understanding to the demands of the decolonized world and the long-standing alliance with London, when it comes to European policies. The referendum of June 23rd is attracting increasing interest across all of Europe, but, when you consider Ireland, to count all the changes that would result from a redefinition of the UK’s role in the EU looks a daunting task.
