Empowering and legitimizing the European Union.
Expectations for the European elections were so much more dramatic than the reality that the “day after” comments tended to follow preexisting trains of thought rather than the actual ballot-box results.
There’s no doubt that the National Front victory in France is very striking, as is the triumph of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) in the British Isles, but anti-European populism only struck gold in these two countries and in Denmark, certainly not enough to claim that it has taken Europe by storm. In fact the ‘True Finns’ in Finland, Geert Wilders’ PVV in the Netherlands and the 5 Star Movement in Italy lost ground, while the euro-sceptics in Germany and Austria did not make much headway.
Even voter turnout figures were actually slightly up on 2009 and so did not record a predicted and much-feared drop. The result is an EU Parliament in which the anti-European or euro-sceptic faction holds around 20% of the seats.
But this faction is made up of parties that won’t find it easy to join forces and, in any case, it will be hard for them to change the workings of a parliament accustomed to being governed by the major parties, which have essentially held their ground.
So nothing’s changed and everything will continue as before?
One can never rule out such a risk, given that the EU’s joint institutions seem to depend on continuity. But a number of countries will be pushing for change and it will be hard to ignore this.
The real problem, however, lies in the direction this change will take, seeing as some of the ideas for transformation are profoundly contradictory. It could be that in addition to the United Kingdom, France and Denmark, the governments of other countries where anti-European feeling is strong may believe they should pander to it, to save face with their electorate.
If this happens, then all attempts at further integration will be stymied, new restrictions on legal immigration will be introduced and even European citizens’ right to freely circulate and live in other EU countries will be questioned, rebuilding the barriers removed by Schengen.
If, on the other hand, the prevailing issues are those promoted by Italy, which is pushing for shared growth after so much shared austerity, then there could be a much stronger move towards greater integration, which would involve a streamlining of the single market that still suffers many bottlenecks, more unification in the financial and banking sectors, and more mutually beneficial investments.
In other words the change won’t be spearheaded by the new forces in Parliament, but will instead be produced as part of a reaction by the larger traditional parties and many national governments to the advent of these new forces.
The real key is which direction these players will take. Tremendous courage is needed to opt for the second path, towards integration, but, at a time when the economic crisis continues to bite and is one of the factors fuelling anti- European feelings, anyone with even the slightest understanding of economics knows full well that locking oneself into one’s own national borders will only exacerbate not alleviate the repercussions of the crisis.
The disappointment and rage of the anti- European factions should actually be countered with greater pragmatism, by improving their economic prospects and providing more opportunities for jobs and income. The important thing is to do this intelligently, by building every single element with what each member state can give, whether it’s the completion of the banking union or the interconnected electricity grid, without putting the federal cart in front of these very practical horses. And it is also right, as well as advisable, to dismantle what can be dismantled without causing damage. And while curtailing freedom of residence and social rights is a mistake, there’s nothing wrong in deterring blatant welfare shopping, which grates with a sense of fairness that is strongly rooted in national communities.
Can it be done? As upcoming president of the European Council, Italy will have all the institutional authority to do so, but it won’t be the only one seeking change. The French government has no intention of chasing after Marine Le Pen. And, above all, there’s Germany, where the government coalition is held together by the common idea of adding growth and employment policies to strict budget control, along with all the integration tools this may require.
Shortly before the May elections, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble was preaching for the need to transfer the policies so far implemented at national intergovernmental level into the EU sphere, to strengthen them and give them greater European legitimisation. It’s unthinkable that statements of this kind fail to have consequences. And if they fuel Germany’s position in the coming months, it won’t take long for the necessary changes to come, further encouraged by a European Parliament operating with the same kind of majority running Germany.
Sometimes, political creativity leads to healthy coincidences.
Empowering and legitimizing the European Union.
