Somalia for the first time in thirty years has hosted a Summit of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which last Tuesday brought together the heads of state and government of Uganda, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia and the Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
In the slow Somalia’s progress towards the restoration of peace and stability, the fact that Mogadishu has holds the 28th IGAD extraordinary meeting is an evidence of trust of the regional bloc towards the federal government and the progress made in the construction of a new Somalia, after more than two decades of anarchy.
Another important signal is clear from the fact that during the proceedings of the high-profile conference has been averted the real risk of attacks by al Shabaab jihadists, that on the eve of the summit, had aroused considerable concern to the organizers.
For a few days, security measures in the capital have been raised to the maximum level and the main streets were closed to reduce the possibility of attacks with car bombs by Somali extremists, who continue to pose a serious threat to the stability of entire Somalia.
A threat that is confirmed in a report made by the Rand Corporation, published on Tuesday and titled Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency in Somalia: Assessing the Campaign Against al Shabaab.
The long study was compiled based on an extensive qualitative and quantitative review of available data on al Shabaab, two visits in East Africa, direct contacts with AFRICOM and long conversations with regional experts.
According to analysts of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at RAND National Defense Research Institute, despite efforts to weaken the terrorist group linked to al Qaeda over the past five years have performed well, the situation is now coming again for the worst.
The report fears, even the risk that al Shabaab could even begin to hazard levels of 2007-first half of 2010, when it controlled much of Somalia.
The study therefore suggests a number of strategies to reduce the resilience of the Islamist group and points out several factors that over time have weakened. The main ones are related to the internal feud consumed among the leaders of the organization, the enormous losses suffered on the battlefield, the dynamics that regulate the various Somali clans and ideological disputes.
However, al Shabaab has never given up his ambition to exercise control of much of Somalia. The group still keeps intact the ability to take back the territory, especially, if the United States and its allies fail to stop its operational resurgence.
The report then goes on to explain that al Shabaab is a terrorist group organized and ruthless, especially Amniyat, a sort of independent secret police from the shura, created to impose orthodox line within the group and always active in planning attacks.
The resilience of jihadist training is also evident from the fact that al Shabaab continues to kill civilians throughout Eastern Africa and undermine the stability of Somalia. To stabilize the situation, the report stresses the need to establish a US diplomatic presence of top level in Somali territory.
Such presence would be for helping the local government to address policy challenges of the country and strengthen its institutional and administrative capacity, in particular the judiciary and the security forces. In addition, US should ensure policy, long-term economic and military support for AMISOM, the African Union Mission in Somalia.
The US should also retain the option of deploying Special Forces to strike high-value targets (HVT – High Value Target) of Somali extremists. An analysis of the American center of geopolitical studies Stratfor, said that, since the beginning of the Somali civil war, the United States is a key player in the area.
The Stratfor experts refer to the period in which the US troops tried to hunt down the leaders of the militia formed by the faithful clan to self-proclaimed President Mohammed Farah Aidid.
The military action, which in October 1993 led to the Battle of Mogadishu, during which 18 American soldiers were killed, is widely believed to be the main reason why the United States disappeared from the Somali crisis theater until 2007.
Based on the fact that the two analyzes indicate the US presence in Somalia as essential to restore peace and security in the Horn of Africa, it is necessary to highlight that the campaign to hit HTV objectives are pursuing the American forces, as alone is not able to stop the attacks.
The strategy adopted by the US may lead to the elimination or capture of prominent members of al Shabaab and thus reduce its offensive capability. The proof is that in recent months, many leaders of al Shabaab have defiladed, limiting travel, reducing their public appearances and avoiding direct connections with other militants of the group.
However, at the same time, the campaign HTV has not stopped the simple militants of al Shabaab, which remain capable to strike government forces and civilian targets. Not surprisingly, in recent months, Somali extremists have shown that it has maintained an ability to carry out spectacular attacks, particularly lethal in the south and central Somalia.
Somalia for the first time in thirty years has hosted a Summit of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which last Tuesday brought together the heads of state and government of Uganda, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia and the Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud.
