The recent elections have reinforced the role of the nationalist-populist party, which finds itself governing a country outright, a first since the fall of the wall. Where is Poland headed?
“Quo vadis?” asked Polish writer Henryk Sienkiewicz in the novel that won him the Nobel Prize. Analysts are now asking where Poland is headed following the elections of 25 October. The answer seems pretty straightforward as Euroscepticism appears to be growing before our very eyes. In Poland, the Law and Justice Party (PiS), headed by Jaroslaw Kaczynski, embodies this very sentiment.
For the first time, the left has been shut out of the Parliament. And the Civic Platform (PO), which governed the country for eight years, suffered a devastating loss at the polls, although its leader, Donald Tusk, maintained his position as president of the European Council.
Today, Jaroslaw Kaczynski – brother of Polish President Lech Kaczynski, who died in a plane crash near the Russian city of Smolensk – governs Poland. To the great surprise of observers, in May’s presidential elections his party defeated incumbent President Bronislaw Komorowski and brought Andrzej Duda to power. Kaczynski’s choice not to run himself, but to propose new, younger candidates (Duda is 43), worked well in May and again in October’s parliamentary elections.
Newly elected Prime Minister Beata Szydło (52), vice-chairman of the Law and Justice Party (PiS), was able to win votes among conservative and older demographic groups as well as centrist young people. Notable members of Szydło’s cabinet include Deputy Prime Minister Piotr Glinski, a sociology professor who was nominated many times by the PiS as prime minister of a technical government; and Jaroslaw Gowin, leader of the conservative Poland Together (PR) party, whose candidates ran on the PiS ticket during the elections.
The NATO-friendly diplomat Witold Waszczykowski was named Foreign Minister. Lest we forget, in 2008, as Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Waszczykowski was the chief negotiator in the accord for deploying elements of America’s Strategic Defence Initiative (SDI)in Central Europe.
Clearly, the course of the country’s foreign policy may now change. For years, Poland has almost exclusively looked to Germany as its closest partner in Europe, and to the US among non-European nations. Poland will now probably try to carve out a larger role for itself as it reinforces ties with its neighbouring countries – Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia – with which it makes up the Visegrad Group.
The conservative position on accepting refugees which emerged from the Polish elections, for example, is similar to that of Viktor Orban’s in Hungary, but Poland does not share the latters’ sympathies toward Russia. Poland’s relations with Moscow are already quite tense, especially after the war in Ukraine and the Russian embargo on Polish apples. The two countries will have a difficult time finding a common path. Here, psychological factors as well as historical resentments enter into play.
It is hard to believe, for instance, that Kaczynski could forget the death of his twin brother, which although determined to be an accident, did take place in Russia.
Furthermore, President Duda is opposed to the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, similar to the existing Nord Stream that connects Russia and Germany through the Baltic Sea, but which would bypass Poland. In a recent interview with Hungarian news agency MTI, Duda promised: “We must do everything to stop the additional branches of the pipeline from being built. Anyone with even a vague sense of the geopolitical situation knows full well that this is not merely about business, and is of significant political import”.
Duda fears that Poland will be excluded from Russia’s gas flows, though it is important to note that years ago, before the first Nord Stream was built and the South Stream was planned (a gas pipeline through the Black Sea that never came to fruition), Gazprom proposed routing the pipeline though Polish territory, but failed to spark any particular interest from Poland.
On other international policy fronts, relations with the United States are expected to remain very firm. Poland can, in fact, be considered an American ally in Europe.
As far as the Polish economy is concerned, economic indicators were not negative during the previous administration, but the population perceived no substantial increase in their standard of living. On the contrary, the previous administration’s plan to raise the retirement age to 67 lost the Civic Platform many points. While the new government’s views are more statist, it is difficult to imagine that it will alter the existing economic model.
And along with the economy, there is emotion – in this case, a return to Poland’s Christian roots. During the communist regime, the Church and faith were suppressed in Poland. But with Pope John Paul II, the recovery of religious sentiment was ardent and immediate, even among young people. And today, the neo-liberalist wave coupled with the fear of Muslim immigrants threatens the traditional values that many in Poland hold dear .
When speaking with Poles, one realises that modern-day Europe, with its gender-neutral ‘A’ and ‘B’ parents (instead of the traditional ‘mother’ and father’ figures), is not readily comprehensible, and the people see the Law and Justice Party as a point of reference in this sphere as well. And so the national sentiment of an enormous country grows (the sixth largest in Europe in terms of population). Some would call it nationalism, the Poles call it pride.
Ultimately, how do we assess the results of the latest elections? Whatever one’s opinions, before tossing facile criticisms at the new Polish government, we must give them a chance to govern. It’s hard to even imagine that Poland could exit the European Union. The Poles are very tied to Europe, with which they share enormous and important projects, and to the money they receive from the EU.
And importantly, the country remains a bridge between the West and Russia. Whether that bridge will be structurally sound or riddled with mines, we shall soon find out.
The recent elections have reinforced the role of the nationalist-populist party, which finds itself governing a country outright, a first since the fall of the wall. Where is Poland headed?
