There are only a few days left before the elections of the President of the European Parliament. In the corridors of Brussels therumours about who may be the successor of Schulz are increasing. It seems that the final rush will leave three candidates on stage: Antonio Tajani of the European People Party (EPP) , Gianni Pittella of the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Guy Verhofstadt of the Democrats and Liberals (ALDE). In general, the political groups presented eight candidates for the EP Presidency.
According to an analysis by Vote Watch Europe Tajani has a slight advantage over Pittella. He could achieve victory, thanks to the votes of Eurosceptic MEPs and some Northern and German MEPs; while Pittella could obtain the support of the left-wing GUE, Greens, Socialists and two thirds of ALDE Meps.
Some MEPs from ALDE and smaller parties are still hesitating and their votes could be determinant for the victory of one of the main candidates. After an attempt that narrowlyfailed to build an alliance with the Five Stars Movement, Verhofstadt is now in an even more difficult situation because of the internal divisions inside ALDE,with some MEPs not agreeing with their leader’s strategies.
The new EP Presidency, between alliances and strategies
Over the last days, on one hand we saw the attempt at an agreement, which then failed, between a firmly convinced European federalist political group (ALDE) and a Eurosceptic party (the Five Stars Movement ), sabotaged by strong internal opposition from ALDE MEPs against a movement away from the values that identify their Group. On the other hand , the 5Stars Movement went back to Farage’s EFDD Group, accepting very stringent conditions so as not to lose the funds which are only available to MEPs belonging to a political group. The MEPS supporting Beppe Grillo (the’Grillini’) should now have to support the project of Farage: working on an anti-euro referendum, abandoning key positions, and putting pressure on David Borrelli to resign as vice president of the EFDD Group, firing the administrator who conducted the negotiations with the ALDE group together with Borrelli, and in general following Farage’s political positions. In the last hours some MEPs from the Five Stars Movement left the party: Marco Affronte entered the European Green Party as an independent, and Marco Zanni entered the Lega Norte party within the ENF group.
Then the leader of Democrats and Liberals Verhofstadt lost any hope of being elected with an alliance with the S&D group, in case of a lack of agreement between S&D and PPE, but realistically he can now only try to support one of the final candidates and achieve key positions in exchange, according to the analysis of Vote Watch Europe.
Tajani and Pittella will be supported from the vote of all their Group’s MEPs and they could easily have an advantage over the candidates from the smaller groups. As every political group has its own candidate for the EP presidency, the fragmentation of the opposition to the main candidates has now led to a final rush between Tajani and Pittella. In the first round of voting, according to a simulation by Vote Watch Europe, Tajani could achieve 216 votes, Pittella 192, Verhofstadt 70, the Conservative candidate Helga Stevens 78 votes, the candidate from the group of Marine Le Pen and Salvini, Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF), Laurentiu Rebega could obtain 60 votes, while 50 votes could be left to the British candidate Jean Lambert of the EU Greens and 27 to Piernicola Pedicini of the Five Stars Movement, as the candidate for the EFDD group.
After the third round Stevens of ECR could achieve the third position thanks to the support of MEPs who are not part of the ECR group but who feel close to Stevens’ political positions.
The run-off between Tajani and Pittella is set to be very tight: according to the data collected by Vote Watch Europe, Tajani could win by just eleven votes (380 votes to Tajani vs 369 to Pittella). Furthermore, Tajani would win if all Meps are present and participate actively in the election by voting according to the political positions expressed in the last two and a half years.
While the votes of the Five Stars Movement MEPs could change the state of play, they have still not declared their voting intentions. In particular, the votes of Grillo’s MEPs could help Pittella’s final run because he could win with just a few more votes. But that is easier said than done: the relations between the Five Stars Movement and the Democratic Party are extremely difficult. There should be 89 swing voters, 49 of them more likely to favor Tajani. If most of the ALDE MEPs abstain and the ENF Group decides not to participate in the final vote, the two main candidates would be almost tied, with only two votes between them.
In the meantime, according to this analysis, Pittella’s potential electors are more convinced about their choice than some of Tajani’s.
All the political strategies to reach the best alliances for the election of the EP President are still open and up until the last minute all the scenarios could still change.
@IreneGiuntella
There are only a few days left before the elections of the President of the European Parliament. In the corridors of Brussels therumours about who may be the successor of Schulz are increasing. It seems that the final rush will leave three candidates on stage: Antonio Tajani of the European People Party (EPP) , Gianni Pittella of the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and Guy Verhofstadt of the Democrats and Liberals (ALDE). In general, the political groups presented eight candidates for the EP Presidency.
