A) A lot has been said on the international press on Turkey and while the majority of researchers’ analyses are correct, we can’t help noticing a substantial one-sided coverage of the coup by western media. While it’s true that the government reaction to the coup has been impressive, western media seem to be focused only on one side of the story while overlooking other aspects. For instance while Erdogan’s call to reinstate the death penalty or suspend the European Convention on Human Rights may be concerning at first sight, then it is clear its connection with the state of emergency, which is nothing new to countries that face internal threats of this magnitude. The US has done similar things in the past and not for a coup d’état; more recently, France has established the same limitation of rights as a consequence of terrorism and for a longer time.
B) 100% objectivity is impossible and also not desirable but unbiased and balanced analyses are of utmost importance to understand correctly strategically important events such as this one. For non-Turkish people this failed coup is very puzzling and lots of questions come to mind such as who was behind the coup? 1) Probably a part of the military united in their opposition to President Erdogan. 2) In spite of speculations that it was a false event staged by Erdogan himself to secure more power, the analysis of the situation suggests that the event went too far to be false. More likely, he might have learned of the coup in advance but let plotters proceed nevertheless with their plans to take advantage of the opportunities that the failed coup could give him against real and perceived enemies; and even this interpretation goes too far… The government, in fact, has attributed responsibility for the coup to the cleric Fethullah Gulen in exile in the US, but there is a lot that does not add up, not least the fact the Erdogan seemed to have full control of high-ranking officials who were on his side.
C) Another recurrent question is why the coup was staged? There are several reasons why this coup happened in the first place. 1) Most importantly, the Armed Forces were likely concerned that the governing AKP party’s moves to restrain the military’s power were gathering pace. 2) Secondly, as the military has always seen itself as bastion of the country’s democratic and secular values and has often in the past intervened in domestic politics with several coups, it should come as no surprise that the recent moves of Erdogan to strengthen his authoritarian grip on power and continue with the re-islamization of the society were seen as threating by the Army, in addition to the traditional policy of AKP to de-politicize the army: let’s remember that Erdogan has already some years ago opportunely prohibited a military official to occupy the position of Defense Minister and, in these days after the coup, also of Chief of Cabinet. 3) Also the delicate security framework with threats coming both from the spill-over of the Syrian war, ISIS, as well as the Kurdish insurgency were also seen by the Army as problematic.
D) Another puzzling aspect is why the attempted coup failed? The coup failed for different reasons. 1) It was poorly planned and executed and probably launched prematurely perhaps because actions to purge opponents of the government from the military were already accelerating. 2) It was conducted not by the full chain of command of the military. 3) The plotters failed to take action against private television and social media or detain immediately political leaders. 4) And finally they enjoyed no political support among the population or the other main political parties who condemned the coup jointly.
E) Just like successful coups have long-lasting consequences, failed coups can unleash a flood of far-reaching implications as well. So it is fair to ask what will happen now? 1) First of all, we have to underline openly and clearly (which we did not read in most of the Eruopean press) that the failure has been a good news! Then, the coup maybe tightens Erdogan’s grip on power, in fact, he has responded by intensifying his purges of the military, judiciary and police. 2) Erdogan is highly likely to use the coup to argue that he needs to acquire more executive powers in the form of an executive Presidency to prevent a recurrence. 3) The purges will take a toll on the Armed Forced’s reputation, morale and cohesion at a delicate time when the military plays an instrumental role in Turkey’s efforts to fight Kurdish separatists, Isis terrorism and in strengthening Turkey’s border controls with Syria. 4) The implications of the failed coup could in theory affect Turkey’s ability to contribute to regional security as well as affect its relationship with the US, NATO and the EU (the US has said that exploiting the coup to remove the perceived enemies could cost Turkey its NATO membership). 5) As for the economy, if unpredictability continues, the economic impact will be felt at least in the short-term. However, with the aim of diminishing investor concern, the Central Bank said that it will 1) provide unlimited liquidity to banks and 2) would support the Turkish lira by allowing banks to place foreign currency deposits as collateral without limits. Indeed, the Head of Turkey’s Banks Association – Aydin – reiterated that Turkish banks are not in a need of extraordinary liquidity. What’s more, Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the economy, Mehmet Şimşek, in a tweet targeted speculators saying: “I’ve two simple messages to speculators: Turkey will maintain sound macroeconomic policies, and capital controls are out of question. Life of ordinary people and businesses will go un-impacted, uninterrupted, business will be as usual. We’re committed to market economy”.
What we know is that the economic repercussions will depend on the political situation. Therefore as the coup attempt heralds a new and delicate phase for the country, with many unknowns, will we continue to monitor this delicate moment and its far-reaching ramifications. Stay tuned.
