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Predictor Balance for Growth of Exports

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Predictor Balance for Growth of Exports.

Source: Journal Common Market Studies

Figure n°14: Predictor Balance for GDP per capita

Source: Journal Common Market Studies

The calculation results indicate specifically that Turkey’s exports to EU countries in 2013 would have been lower by 38%. Hence, Turkish exports to the EU would have been 39.4 million USD instead of 63.6 million USD in 2013. Real GDP per capita would have been USD 7,418 instead of USD 8,540 as of 2013. To put it another way, Turkey’s total exports and real GDP per capita would have been 16% and 13% less in 2013, respectively.

Figure n°15: Exports growth and GDP per capita with and without the CU

Source: Journal Common Market Studies

Figure n°16: Turkey’s exports to the EU

Source: Journal Common Market Studies

To conclude, also the quantitative assessment of trade and GDP effects of the CU confirms that Turkey would have experienced a lower level of exports and GDP per capita in the absence of the EU-Turkey CU. 

@manu_scogna10

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