A Relaunch of Multilateralism or the Triumph of Greenwashing?

This year, from November 10 to 21, 198 countries will partake in a conference in Belém, Brazil, with the ambitious goal to fight climate change: COP30.

The Conference of the Parties was launched by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and takes place yearly.  Former COPs have been the birthplace of some well-known achievements, most notably the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.

However, not all COPs have achieved breakthroughs, and the USA exiting the Paris Agreement and closing its office of climate diplomacy in 2025 has disrupted international relations and negotiations. Therefore, COP30 has the potential to mark a critical moment: will it be the resurgence of multilateral efforts and collaboration to reach climate goals, or will the gap between ambition and implementation widen, hidden behind a façade of greenwashing?

Our author’s experience of former COPs sets low expectations. At COP28 in Dubai, the air outside was heavy with smog, but inside the giant halls everything gleamed under bright lights. For the first time, countries agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels.” It sounded powerful. But the fine print told another story: vague language, loopholes, no binding deadlines.

The contradiction ran even deeper. The COP28 president, Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who also runs one of the world’s largest oil companies, claimed there was “no science” showing that phasing out fossil fuels was needed to keep 1.5 °C alive, even warning that it would take us “back into caves.”

A year later, in Baku for COP29, the same paradox appeared. Azerbaijan pledged $2 billion for green energy and vowed renewables would cover a third of power by 2027. Yet, gas flaring in Azerbaijan hit a ten-year high, and independent trackers projected emissions could actually rise 13–28% by 2030. Over 1,700 fossil fuel lobbyists were accredited — outnumbering the national delegations.

COP30 taking place in Belém puts Brazil in a difficult position: there is a high expectation that the mistakes of the past will not be repeated, but that a new setting will be provided, suitable for strengthening more inclusive and effective multilateralism.

The country seeks to present a COP with record participation of indigenous peoples, given that they represent 6% of the world population, with 476 million people around the world. André Aranha Correa do Lago, the Brazilian economist and diplomat chosen to preside over the meeting, emphasizes the importance of participation for the historically marginalized and displaced: “COP30 must be the turning point for them to be recognized both as essential actors and as rights holders in the global climate response.”

Sonia Guajajara, minister of Indigenous Peoples, stresses the importance of recognizing her people’s territories, given that the land is not only their system of sustainable social organization, but its protection also guarantees the preservation of biodiversity. Guajajara points out that almost 40% of the planet’s intact forests are on demarcated soils of indigenous populations, with much lower deforestation rates than in areas under government custody.

According to her, “the evidence is clear: where indigenous land rights are respected, deforestation recedes; where they are denied, destruction advances.”

Despite all ambitions, official data highlights a tendency to lateness, disproportionate funding, and lack of awareness. In fact, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change parties were supposed to set their updated climate targets for 2035 by late September; as of October, only 26 out of the participating countries have submitted their updated targets.

Additionally, the New Collective Quantified Goal aims to mobilize $300 billion annually by 2035, even though the actual need for climate action finance is estimated to be between $5.1- $6.8 trillion. While China, the United States and India lead the ranking for biggest polluters, it’s the Least Developed Countries and Small Island States who experience more than twice the global average of climate impacts, while also being financially disadvantaged.

Clearly, there is a demand from the planet: we need actions now. Looking ahead at the next COP, we understand that the process is messy, frustrating, and far from perfect — but walking away isn’t the answer.

The conference in Belém is certainly a big opportunity to strengthen multilateralism and take real action instead of making empty promises. The results will reflect political leaders’ willingness to do so, but most importantly the direction our planet is headed in.