Tunisia

Tunisia is located in North Africa, bordered by the Mediterranean Sea to the north and east. With an area of about 163,610 km², it is the second smallest country in the Maghreb region. The population of Tunisia, as of January 1, 2023, is 12 million, with an annual growth rate of 1%. The capital, Tunis, has a population of 1.1 million, representing 9% of the total population. Other major cities include Sfax (300,000 residents) and Sousse (220,000 residents).

Economic Situation

In 2023, Tunisia’s GDP is estimated at around 47 billion euros, with modest growth expected at around 1.5% compared to the previous year. The GDP per capita is 3,900 euros, indicating an economy still in development compared to European standards. Exports reached 20 billion euros, while imports amounted to 30 billion euros, resulting in a trade deficit of 10 billion euros. The inflation rate in December 2023 was 7%, influenced by rising food and energy prices, and the unemployment rate is at 15.2%, with peaks among the youth (30%). Public debt reached 100 billion euros, equivalent to 65% of GDP, while the budget deficit is expected to be 6% of GDP. In 2022, foreign direct investments (FDI) in Tunisia amounted to 2 billion euros, marking a 10% increase from the previous year. The main sources of FDI come from France, Italy, and other EU countries.

Forecasts

Forecasts for 2024 indicate an economic growth of about 2%, driven by the recovery of the tourism sector and increased foreign investments. However, significant challenges persist, including the need for structural reforms, political stability, and debt management.

Country Risk

Tunisia presents moderate country risk, characterized by political instability and social tensions arising from high unemployment and rising living costs. However, the country has made progress in improving its international image and attracting investments.

Foreign Direct Investments

In 2022, FDI in Tunisia focused mainly on manufacturing, agriculture, and tourism. The country has sought to attract investments in renewable energy and infrastructure, offering tax incentives and support programs for businesses.

Geopolitical Analysis

Role in the Mediterranean

Tunisia occupies a strategic position in the Mediterranean, acting as a bridge between Europe and Africa. This location gives it a key role in migration dynamics and maritime trade. The EU has recognized Tunisia’s importance in combating irregular migration and has provided economic and political support to improve border management and security cooperation.

Relations with the European Union

Tunisia is a privileged partner of the EU, with which it has signed various association and cooperation agreements. The EU is Tunisia’s main trading partner, and the country benefits from European development funds. However, internal political instability and economic challenges can negatively affect relations and Tunisia’s ability to fulfill international obligations.

Relations with Arab Countries and North Africa

Tunisia maintains strong relations with Arab countries, supporting regional cooperation and stability in North Africa. It is a member of the Arab League and actively participates in regional political and economic initiatives. However, regional tensions, such as those between Algeria and Morocco, can affect stability and cooperation in the region.

Post-COVID Geopolitical Challenges and the Impact of the War in Ukraine

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on Tunisia’s economy, particularly in the tourism sector. The war in Ukraine further complicated the economic situation, affecting energy and food prices, increasing pressure on public finances and the cost of living.

Migration Policy and Security

Tunisia is an important transit point for migrants heading to Europe. The Tunisian government has cooperated with the EU to manage migration flows and has implemented measures to strengthen security. However, migration pressure and socio-economic conditions may lead to internal instability.