Jordan

Jordan is located in the heart of the Middle East, a strategic region connecting Asia, Africa, and Europe. Covering an area of approximately 89,342 square kilometers, it is the 12th-largest Arab country by size. It borders Syria to the north, Iraq to the east, Saudi Arabia to the south, and Israel and the West Bank to the west. To the south, Jordan has access to the Red Sea via the Gulf of Aqaba. Amman, the capital and largest city, has a population of around 4.5 million, about 45% of the country’s total population, which is estimated to be approximately 10 million as of 2023.

Economic Overview

Jordan’s GDP in 2023 was estimated at USD 24.5 billion, with modest economic growth of +2.3% over the previous year. The GDP per capita stands at USD 2,450. Jordan’s exports rose by 5.8%, reaching USD 8.2 billion in 2023, while imports exceeded USD 20 billion, creating a trade deficit of USD 11.8 billion. The current account deficit was estimated at 9% of GDP. Public debt reached USD 41 billion, or 160% of GDP. Unemployment remains high at 22%, with youth unemployment (ages 15-24) much higher, near 35%.

The average gross monthly salary is USD 450, with a minimum wage set at USD 310 per month. Inflation rose by 3.7% in 2023, partly due to increased global prices for food and energy. Inflation has negatively impacted the purchasing power of households, already strained by years of economic stagnation and regional influences.

Forecasts

For 2024, growth is expected to reach 2.7%, supported by government efforts to attract foreign investment and promote tourism. However, internal challenges such as high debt, unemployment, and energy dependency will continue to weigh on Jordan’s economy. Inflation is expected to decrease slightly to 2.8% in 2024.

Country Risk

Jordan faces a moderate-to-high country risk, with a fragile economy due to high public debt and dependence on external aid. However, the political system is stable, and the country enjoys good international relations, especially with the United States and the European Union, which provide economic assistance and support for development projects.

Foreign Direct Investments

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Jordan was relatively low in 2022, with around USD 1.3 billion invested, primarily in the energy, infrastructure, and telecommunications sectors. Jordan’s main trade partners are the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and European countries, which continue to support growth through investments in sustainable and renewable development projects.

Geopolitical Analysis

Jordan plays a key role in Middle Eastern geopolitics due to its strategic location and status as a regional stabilizer. Despite its relatively small size, it is one of the most influential actors in a region marked by conflicts and tensions.

Relations with Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

The Hashemite Kingdom was the second Arab country, after Egypt, to sign a peace treaty with Israel in 1994, thus consolidating diplomatic and commercial relations with the Israeli state. The treaty has helped maintain stability along the Jordanian-Israeli border. However, Jordan remains deeply involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, supporting the creation of a Palestinian state and hosting a large Palestinian refugee population. Amman plays a significant role in peace negotiations and the administration of Islamic holy sites in Jerusalem.

Relations with the United States and Western Powers

Jordan has established strong ties with the United States, its main military ally and a provider of direct economic assistance, including humanitarian and defense aid. The country is also a key ally in the international coalition against terrorism and in the fight against ISIS. Relations with the European Union are also solid, with Jordan benefiting from numerous cooperation programs for development and institutional strengthening.

Role in the Arab and Middle Eastern Context

Jordan is an active member of the Arab League and various regional councils such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the Arab Forum. Although not a GCC member, it maintains close cooperation with Gulf countries, which provide economic and financial support by funding development projects and sending funds to support Jordan’s economy in times of crisis.

Relations with Iraq and Syria

Historically strong, Jordan’s relations with Iraq have faced challenges due to the complex regional geopolitics. Recently, with growing security in Iraq, Jordan has strengthened economic and trade ties. Relations with Syria were strained during the civil war, but Jordan has worked to restore commercial links and has hosted millions of Syrian refugees, becoming an essential point of access for humanitarian and trade support.

Economic and Regional Challenges

Jordan’s economy is strongly influenced by regional dynamics. The Syrian crisis has had a significant impact, as millions of Syrian refugees have sought asylum in Jordan, placing pressure on public services and increasing the need for international aid. Additionally, the economic challenges of limited natural resources, such as oil, and dependence on external energy sources constrain the country’s sustainable growth.

Migration Policy and Security

Jordan has been a refuge for migrants and refugees over the past decades, including Palestinian, Iraqi, and Syrian refugees. Managing these migration flows is one of the government’s main challenges. Although generally safe, recent years have seen increased security concerns, particularly around extremism, with Jordan implementing counter-terrorism policies in collaboration with Western allies.

Mali

The Republic of Mali is a landlocked country in West Africa, covering approximately 1,240,000 square kilometers, making it one of Africa’s largest nations. It borders seven countries: Algeria to the north, Niger to the east, Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire to the south, Guinea to the southwest, and Senegal and Mauritania to the west. Mali’s population reached 22 million in 2023, with one of the world’s highest population growth rates at about 3% annually. The capital city, Bamako, is the largest urban center, with over 3 million inhabitants. Most of the population resides in the southern regions, benefiting from the Niger River, while the northern desert areas are sparsely populated.

Economic Overview

Mali’s economy is heavily dependent on agriculture and natural resource extraction.

• GDP and Growth: In 2023, GDP was estimated at $20 billion. Economic growth has slowed in recent years due to political instability and security crises.
• Key Sectors: Agriculture (cotton, rice, millet) employs the majority of the workforce. Mali is also a significant gold exporter, with gold accounting for 70% of its exports.
• Trade and Debt: Exports primarily target African countries and China, while key imports include food, machinery, and fuel. Public debt is rising, exacerbated by reliance on international aid.

Social Challenges

• Poverty Rate: Over 40% of the population lives below the poverty line.
• Health and Education: Life expectancy is approximately 59 years, and literacy rates remain low, particularly in rural areas, where only 35% of adults are literate.

Geopolitical Analysis

Political Instability

Mali has experienced significant political unrest and armed conflicts in recent years. Coups in 2020 and 2021 have worsened an already precarious situation, leaving the country under a transitional government.

• Jihadist Insurgency: Since 2012, groups linked to Al-Qaeda and ISIS have exploited institutional weaknesses and ethnic divisions to operate in northern and central Mali.
• International Forces: The international community, through missions like MINUSMA (UN), has sought to stabilize Mali with limited success. The government’s collaboration with the Wagner Group, affiliated with Russia, has strained relations with traditional Western partners.

Economic Development

Gold and agriculture offer economic potential, but dependence on narrow markets leaves Mali vulnerable to external shocks. Climate change poses an escalating threat to agriculture, with increasing periods of drought.

Regional Relations

Mali is a member of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), but its relations with member countries have deteriorated following recent coups. ECOWAS imposed economic sanctions in 2021, which were partially lifted in 2022.

• Cross-Border Conflicts: Mali faces disputes over jihadist movements and the trafficking of arms and drugs with neighboring countries.
• Strategic Partnerships: Relations with China and Russia are growing due to investments in infrastructure and military supplies.

Impact of the Ukraine Crisis

The war in Ukraine indirectly impacted Mali through rising food and energy prices. The government used the situation to deepen ties with Russia, further distancing itself from Western nations.

Mali is at a critical juncture in its history, with political instability and security crises threatening economic and social development. Nonetheless, the country has substantial economic potential in mining and agriculture, which could flourish with regional stabilization and long-term development policies. Geopolitical competition between Russia, China, and Western partners will play a decisive role in shaping Mali’s future.