US elections: has Trump lost?

2020 US elections: is Trump re-election fruitful or futile? There is no question that he has left an unmistakable impression on US politics, but will his actions bolster re-election hopes or cause him to crumble?

Trump’s 2016 presidential victory ushered in a new era of combative modern politics. His business acumen translates into his governance, propounding ruthlessness and minimal partisan compromise. For some, this is a welcome change; others, political turmoil. A key factor of Trump’s presidency is communications – both social media and the press. Throughout the technological era, presidents’ online accounts have been limited to posts of strictly relevant information and administration-related announcements. Trump naturally disputed this practice, maintaining command of his online presence – the first president to do so. During his incumbency, his Twitter followers have had full access to his beliefs – often informative, sometimes societally retrogressive.

Social media and the press

It is undeniable that such access to the ‘leader of the free world’ has brought Trump closer to his supporters, cementing their ideologies of him as a people’s president. Trump’s deflection of press and media outlets have propelled the term ‘Fake News’ – denouncing the candour of major outlets in favour of that of President Trump. In contrast, such clarity of the president’s convictions has widened the divide to the opposition. Trump’s position on trans-rights is a prime example: ‘The United States Government will not accept or allow transgender individuals to serve in any capacity in the US military;’ as is his stance on newly elected progressive democrats (notably Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez): ‘originally coming from countries whose governments are a complete and total catastrophe. Why don’t they go back and help fix the totally broken and crime-infested places from which they came?’ Across both parties, such views illustrate a reversion to the racially and ethnically oppressed United States of the past. In both the light and dark of Trump’s administration, nothing has been ‘by the book’.

The conflict with Iran

2020 has been a defining year for Trump. January brought the brink of international conflict with Iran, with rising tensions leading to the assassination of Commander Qasem Soleimani, Iranian missile attacks against US/Iraqi bases and the imposition of further sanctions. New sanctions are in addition to those imposed on Iran since the seizure of the US embassy in Tehran in 1979, relating to Iran’s energy and financial sectors, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, support for terrorism and conduct linked to human rights abuses by Iran and Syria. Shortly after, the third impeachment trial of an incumbent president took place, with the hearings and subsequent acquittal generating fierce political disposition amongst US Congressmen and women. Such prominent political crises concluded by the dawn of February 5^th, and Trump re-election support gained even further traction following these successes.

The racial issue

By March, the ravages of Covid-19 were global, and the US found itself at the apex. Combinations of poor federal guidance, lack of health equipment and precautions and unwilling citizens resulted in a wildfire of infections. With the US at the top of the death toll, Trump is in the hot seat. Concurrently, the ongoing racial divide in America and global growth of the Black Lives Matter movement is capturing the attention of people worldwide. The deaths of African American private citizens Breonna Taylor and George Floyd, among others, at the hands of police, have sparked nationwide and global upheaval. Protests and riots against a lack of charges and intervention in police brutality and racial inequality erupted in major cities and towns countrywide. The political divide widened. Condolences are not enough. The administration must do more. For a Trump re-election, 2020 could make it or break it.

Trump or Biden?

The biggest question in US politics this year is Biden or Trump? Following one of the most difficult years in global politics, the actions of world leaders have been at the forefront of various crises. Arguably, Trump has not favoured well in comparison to his peers. Is it therefore naïve to count on a Trump re-election? No. Trump has an extremely strong support base – predominantly due to the form of revolutionary politics that he represents. His successes in normalising relations by brokering a UAE-Bahrain-Israel peace deal and delivering the lowest rate of unemployment (3.5%) in 50 years, prior to the pandemic, have only strengthened that support. Nevertheless, failings to effectively command the pandemic have consolidated his opposition. Trump vs Biden is not simply about man vs man or candidate vs candidate, but the politically new vs the politically old – their similarities in age notwithstanding. With immense support for both sides, evident by a historic 2 million early voters, the 2020 presidential election seems too close to call.