Over 200 million citizens headed for ballot boxes in twenty eight countries, a record turnout of over 50% (+ 8 points), no revolution: the May elections haven’t turned Europe on its head
This article is also published in the July/August issue of eastwest.
As expected, for once, the outcome perfectly matched the poll forecasts, the traditional people’s party and the socialist, who have ruled the EU forever, lost their absolute majority.
Together, the two factions can only rely on 44% of the seats: 179 for the PPE and 153 for the S&D. Their consensus was already on the wane in 2009, after the boom of 2004 that had seem the two of them take 67% of available seats.
The rise of the nationalists, that had everyone worried, was lower than expected and in any case not so sweeping that it can build a coalition capable of undermining Europe.
Identity and Democracy, the formation headed by Matteo Salvini, which in the meantime has changed name, is numerically speaking only fifth in the European Parliament. The group did very well in Italy, as the Italians proved to be the most euro-sceptic of all Europeans, and in France, but it made little inroads in the other EU countries and especially in Denmark where the People’s party lost half its votes, from 26.6% to 11% and has totally disappeared in Holland, where Geert Wilders didn’t even make it past the cut-off threshold.
Overall, the sum of all Euro-sceptic groups (including the ENF and the EFDD where the 5SM reside), has managed to secure 170 seats, nowhere near the 367 seats required to hold a majority that can have a serious impact on Europe.
The vote did however crown two new victors: the Greens and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe (now Renew Europe), which together can now boast 181 seats. The Greens have 75 seats, thanks to the impulse provided by its German electorate which with its 20% became the second party behind the CDU (which still has 28%) and in France, where they earned 13% of the votes, a total they hadn’t expected. The European ecologists did quite well in a number of countries and in particular in Ireland, where they gained 10 percentage points, in Denmark, Belgium and the United Kingdom.
Italy is an exceptions to this rule. The greens here didn’t even reach the cut-off threshold. In our country there’s no trace of those forces that in the rest of Europe have stalled the advance of the sovereigntists: the greens, the environmentalists, the young.
Getting back to the continental context, rather surprisingly, the liberals have placed 106 members in the European parliament, compared to 68 during the previous legislation. Renew Europe, with its 14% will tip the scales in the new European parliament; this percentage will enable the liberals to form an extended coalition with the people’s party and the socialists, with around 58% of the seats.
The rise of Renew Europe owes much to the French and British votes, two countries that have also contributed to the rise of the sovereigntists. Emmanuel Macron had to stomach being overtaken by Marine Le Pen at home, but paradoxically the 21 seats taken by his “La Republique En Marche” will count more in Europe that those of Rassemblement National. In Great Britain, where the Tories collapsed (worst result in the last 200 years for poor old Theresa May’s Tory party) and Nigel Farage’s Brexit party came out on top (29 seats), there was also a boom of the Lib Dems, rewarded by the pro-European faction, dismayed by the excessive ambiguity displayed by Jeremy Corbyn over Brexit. The British Social Democrats have secured 16 seats. Their support to the group is short term, (they expire in October), but they are in right now and can influence the election of the European parliament presidents and, more importantly, that of the Commission. Voting for ALDE was fairly patch: in some countries the liberals even lost seats, such as Belgium, Croatia, Bulgaria, Finland, Lithuania and Holland (not to mention Italy, where +Europa didn’t even make it across the cut-off threshold), but in any case their success seems to put paid to the narrative that has accompanied the electoral campaign: distaste for liberal elites, and a necessary return to national egoisms together with a rejection of the European project.
The ninth mandate of the new European parliament will start on July 2.
Its fragmentation, compared to the past, could hinder a few decision making processes and the reform of the Eurozone, which is essential. That’s why it must be hoped that a brave leadership is provided, capable of accelerating the European integration process.
The formation of a new tri-partite majority with the inclusion of Renew Europe could alter the usual balance of power and convince the People’s party to forego the presidency of the Commission and make it easier to find a compromise solution. The same could apply to the Presidency of the European Parliament, which during the past legislation saw an alternation of People’s party and Socialist representatives.
Two other appointments are about to lapse, and could be influenced by the current political skirmishing: the presidency of the European Council and the appointment of the new Governor of the European Central Bank. After 8 years leading the ECB, Mario Draghi will leave his post at the end of October. For a country with such a high public debt as Italy, the selection of the new Governor will carry great weight.
Today, Italy can claim three of the main European Union positions: the European Parliament President (Antonio Tajani), the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (Federica Mogherini) and the President of the ECB. With the two governing parties (League and 5SM) out of the main coalition which will lead Europe, Italy risks seeing its influence severely curtailed. A first indication will be forthcoming in the next few weeks, when the negotiations will also produce the name and role of the next Italian Commissioner in the European Commission.
“Officials and diplomats joke about the fact that Italy has become irrelevant in the upcoming appointment negotiations “, writes Politico. “From a political point of view, Italexit is already underway”.
Beyond national considerations, the most significant development is that Liberals and Greens could be fundamental in accelerating the integration process, thanks to their fresh energy and drive, and manage to overcome the reticence of Frau Merkel’s Europe, who will be remembered as the leader holding all the aces for a decade, but who only played jacks and kings. This intergovernmental game of diminishing returns cannot last. The nationalists, who’s policies are unsuited to fighting the economic and value crisis we are mired in, will have a cake-walk if the pro-Europeans don’t use this legislation to prove that history is on their side and that only an integrated Europe can confront the global issues ahead. In democracy, the choice is between two or three contenders, none of them ideal. If the alternatives that yearn for open and integrated societies don’t come up with believable leaders and solutions, we’ll have the “baddies” in tow for a long time, with all the risks this entails.
@GiuScognamiglio
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Over 200 million citizens headed for ballot boxes in twenty eight countries, a record turnout of over 50% (+ 8 points), no revolution: the May elections haven’t turned Europe on its head
Together, the two factions can only rely on 44% of the seats: 179 for the PPE and 153 for the S&D. Their consensus was already on the wane in 2009, after the boom of 2004 that had seem the two of them take 67% of available seats.
