The end of the United Kingdom

If it leaves the EU with no deal, the United Kingdom risks upsetting the delicate balance that has held four nations for centuries

The prestigious rugby tournament known as the “Six nations“, which Italy joined in 2000 and France in 1910, was actually first set up in 1883 as the Home Championships among the four nations of the British Isles: England, Ireland, Scotland and Wales (strictly in alphabetical order). It was thus a competition between all the nationalities that belonged to the United Kingdom, which at the time included the entire island of Ireland, and which to this day sees players from the Irish Republic – an independent state since 1922 – and Northern Ireland, ruled by London, on the same side. This sets it apart from football, where besides the English and Scottish national sides, among the oldest in the world, there is also a Welsh side, and a Northern Irish side that is separate from that of the Irish Republic. While sport is often a mirror of society, in football it represents the current division of the United Kingdom into nations, while in rugby it might prefigure the fate of the British Isles once they leave the EU following a no deal Brexit.

Northern Ireland is after all the region most affected by Brexit. It finds itself hovering between the two sides of the only future land border between the EU and the United Kingdom, between the authority of London and the attraction of Dublin, between the peaceful yet fragile status quo and the revival of terrorism and unrest. The peace agreement of 1998 which put an end to the “Troubles”, the thirty year occupation by British armed forces fighting Catholic Irish terrorism that led to over 1,200 casualties among the former and close to 400 among the latter. However, the fire is still smouldering beneath the ashes, or under every sod of the peat that traditionally heated Irish homes, and is now ready to flicker back to life, revived by the winds of Brexit. This would be particularly likely in the event of no-deal and the return of a real based frontier along the 300 mile long border, crossed every day by close to 30,000 commuters.

As things stand, the United Kingdom and Ireland’s membership of the EU had capped the flames for over 40 years, bringing with it economic and social development, integration between the two countries and other EU members states, to such an extent that in 2015 a survey reported that only 13% of the population of Northern Ireland was in favour of a united Ireland any time soon. The dominant thinking here was that, in the end, we are all Europeans, we are all fine within the EU, so why divide ourselves between those loyal to the British Crown and those in favour of Irish reunification? Hardly surprisingly in the 2016 referendum 56% of voters opted to stay in the EU. In 2019, with the threat of a no deal in the offing, the percentage of Northern Irish in favour of secession from London and the unification of the island has risen to 32% with a further 23% undecided. No surprise then, in such a polarised climate, that since 2017 the two main parties in Northern Ireland have not managed to form a coalition government at regional level, night-time car bombings by the IRA have resumed along with street demonstrations and last March there was the first casualty resulting from clashes between the police and IRA sympathisers in twenty years.

Thanks to Brexit the fate of Northern Ireland hangs from a thread and barbed wires and electrified fences may once more run through  the green Irish countryside to avoid smuggling of goods across the EU border, and weapons for the terrorist-patriots who aim to use force  against the government in London as their fathers, grandfathers, great-grandfathers and forebears have done before them – with the risk of further Bloody Sundays.

While storm clouds are brewing across the Irish sea, others are shaping north of Hadrian’s Wall. The fight for Irish independence was awash with blood in the 20^th century, but Scotland has not forgotten the centuries of war with England, which ended with the unification in 1707. To this day Scotland has its own judicial system covering both criminal and civil law. Still unsatisfied by the broad devolution of powers peacefully achieved during the years of Tony Blair’s leadership, including the institution of a Scottish parliament in Edinburgh in 1999, after a long struggle Scotland managed to obtain permission to hold a referendum on independence in 2014. The popular consultation saw 85% of registered voters head to the ballot boxes, and the no to secession won out with a 55.3% majority. One of the main reasons to remain in the United Kingdom was that by leaving, Scotland would also have left the EU, and lost access to the largest market for Scottish goods, from fish produce to wool, along with the regional and agricultural funds paid out by Brussels, the benefits related to education and research – Erasmus being one of them – and generally speaking the favourable legal and economic framework provided by the European Union. A very serious potential loss, which in 2016 convinced 62% of Scots to vote in favour of staying in the EU.

If a new referendum on independence were held the European factor now would work in favour of succession, allowing Scotland to apply for readmission to the EU. To this one must also add the intense and widespread Scottish frustration with the British government’s inability to secure an exit deal, compounded by irritation produced by the disdainful way London has so far ignored Edinburgh’s position in its negotiations with Brussels. Likely outcome? According to an August 2019 poll, 47% of Scots are calling for a second referendum on independence, and if one were held, 46% would vote in favour and 43% against. So It’s no coincidence that the Scottish National Party that rules the regional assembly with 62 seats out of 129 of the Edinburgh Parliament is preparing to campaign for an independence referendum by taking advantage of this institutional clash, that has got worse since Boris Johnson became prime minister. One only need consider that when Johnson, at the beginning of September, prorogued parliament to facilitate his path towards no deal and a number of citizens, members of parliament and lords took the decision to court, the Scottish high courts deemed the action illegal – while the English high court claimed incompetence – thus challenging the London government. The British supreme court subsequently confirmed the illegality of the measure, backing the decision of the Scottish judges over the English ones.

A clash that has heavily undermined Scottish Tories, who had campaigned to stay in the United Kingdom in 2014 and to remain in the EU in 2016, well aware of the links between the two choices, and whose leader Ruth Davidson resigned on 29 August 2019 partly in relation to her differing views over Brexit to Johnson’s.

Given the 2014 precedent and subsequent developments, the fate of Scotland will depend on the political and legal dossiers that will most likely be tabled between Edinburgh and London following a no deal Brexit, which, if they somehow lead to a second referendum on independence, could this time see William Wallace’s Braveheart vindicated at last.

Compared to the tensions in Northern Ireland and Scotland, the fate of Wales seems much more set. Yet one shouldn’t underestimate the placid Welsh, who insist on using their Celtic language instead of English, and consider the resistance of King Arthur’s Celts against Anglo-Saxon invaders as a founding myth – thus the Welsh emblem is a red dragon, the same as the Arthurian legends. In the 2016 referendum, 52.5% of Welsh voters opted to leave the EU, with a margin of approximately 82,000 votes compared to the 47.5% in favour of Remain. However, a recent study has shown that the only counties that swung the vote in favour of Leave were those inhabited by 620,000 English who had moved to Wales in recent years,  drawn by the beauty of the scenery and the peaceful (and cheaper) provincial lifestyle. In the counties were Welsh is spoken, most voters opted to stay in the EU.

Hardly surprisingly the years following the referendum have witnessed a rise in the ever simmering Welsh nationalism. A 2019 poll has revealed that one third of Welshmen are in favour of Welsh independence in order to stay within the EU. But even more significantly, the percentage rises to 42% among the 18 to 24 age bracket. This aspiration has traditionally been represented by the nationalist Plaid Cymru party, with its official name in Welsh rather than English, which means Welsh Party – which obtained 22.4% of the votes in the recent European elections. But according to another poll, today one fifth of Labour voters are in favour of an independent Wales if it stayed in the EU. And recent Welsh nationalist events have attracted famous Welsh footballers and rugby players, with their flags sporting Arthur’s red dragon.

Football and rugby. If London doesn’t come up with an eleventh hour Brexit deal, the next Six Nation’s contest may see a greater connection between the teams fielded and the states outlined on the map of Europe.

@Alessandro__Ma

This article is also published in the November/December issue of eastwest.

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