The new strategic-electoral equilibrium of old emotions

Montenegro: opposition parties celebrate victory at the elections. A vertiginous voter turnout, the majority of Montenegrins opted for changes

With fading EU integrationist euphoria, deeply influenced by divulgation of numerous political affairs and a decisive lack of much needed progress in the key areas pertaining the rule of law – repeatedly emphasised by European Commission’s reports – the delicate discourse on religious freedom has been exploited by the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) to position itself as the arduous defender of independence and the legitimacy of the Montenegrin state.

Returning to the tiring reality of 1918, when the small Balkan country was illegitimately annexed to the Kingdom of the Serbs, Croats and Slovenes, and with no intention to motivate the precise momentum in which the contentious Law on Freedom of Religion or Beliefs and Legal Status of Religious Communities  was passed, the Government triggered further dichotomization between pro-Western and pro-Serbian/Russian parties in the country, making the national identity the underlying and defining factor of the 2020 Parliamentary Elections results.

However, the party in power made a serious miscalculation, forgetting to include the most important variable in the equation: the sentiment of the believing people. And so it was that Montenegro returned to the narrative of street protests which have profoundly polarised the society and have paved the way to creation of an entirely new political reality. Unlike any previous citizen and anti-government protests – evolved as reaction to corrupted modus operandi of the longstanding regime, rule of law deficiency and captured institutions which have profoundly influenced the path of transition and EU integration of the country – the last ones have accentuated the pivotal role of the Church in driving social transformation and, finally, determining the electoral will. The mobilising force of the Church has been soon recognised by the opposition parties which have used the protest narrative to position themselves as protectors of civil, multicultural and multi-confessional component of Montenegrin society.

The health emergency

Except for the controversial law, it was Covid-19 pandemic management which made even more noticeable the extent of institutional fragmentation. Despite the excellent results achieved in terms of public health protection, the state of emergency (never formally declared as such for clearly strategic-electoral reasons) was marked by the some deeply problematic political decisions. Several CSOs voiced their concerns regarding disputed legitimacy of the formation, competences and operating methods of the National Coordination Body for Infectious Diseases, an inadequate (if not even lacking) coordination between the three branches of power, emanation of several legislative amendments aimed at encouraging a non-transparent decision making and accumulation of electoral support, as well as severe violation of human rights through the publication of lists of persons in self-isolation at the very beginning of pandemic. Despite of the lacking institutional prosecution of responsible persons, these affairs have significantly affected further degradation of the ruling coalitions’ political capital.

It is precisely the religious-pandemic context that shaped the narrative of 2020 election campaign, relying on the equilibrium set between the history and the present, the ethnic-religious division and the principle of unity, dictated by the moment of the general crisis. And it was the fatigue and need for long-awaited regime change, revolving around the religious question, that became the sole and common denominator of openly conflicting national-political orientations and opposition parties’ electoral programmes.

On August 30, 2020, at the eleventh parliamentary elections since the introduction of the multi-party system and the fifth since the restoration of country’s independence in 2006, characterised by delimiting context of pandemic which made even more visible the institutional advantage of certain electoral runners and, finally, a vertiginous voter turnout, the majority of Montenegrins opted for changes. According to the State Election Commission preliminary results – with 32.55% of the votes in support of the pro-Serbian and pro-Russian alliance “For the Future of Montenegro” led by Democratic Front, along with the Democrats-led coalition “Peace is our Nation” and United Reform Action’s list “Black on White” which have won respectively 12.53% and 5.53 % of the votes – the three main opposition parties have reached the necessary majority of 41 mandates.

The opposition parties

The opposition’s tight victory and vast discrepancies in programmes and orientation of its composing parties, however, entail the necessity to reflect on how, in case of its eventual formation, such a heterogeneous government will be able to find a common ground in terms of foreign policy agenda (in primis NATO membership, rapprochement with Serbia and Russia, the question of Kosovo’s independence) as well as to formulate a unified and efficient response to challenges posed by the emerging health and economic crisis. Will the opposition, indeed, fulfil its electoral promises by forming an expert government which will enable a peaceful transition of power and act as a reformist force leading the country toward the EU? Will it have enough knowledge and strength to set aside their differences for the sake of public welfare and lead the country towards the reality of trustworthy representative democracy, institutional transparency and the overall enhancement of the rule of law?

On the other hand, with 40 possible mandates in the parliament (30 of its own, 8 won by traditional coalition partners and 2 acquired by pro-Montenegrin Social Democratic Party) and Mr Đukanović as incumbent president, although considerably weakened, the DPS will certainly continue to play an important role on political scene in the country, carefully observing and using disagreements among the opposition parties in favour of its own agenda.

Without any doubt, the 2020 parliamentary elections results represent a clear reflection of the popular will to have the long-awaited socio-political and institutional reforms set in motion, but also an indicator of the changing political mentality of the electorate which is no longer afraid to say no to demagogic rhetoric, and, hopefully, opting for nation building and further democratisation of the society instead of divisions.