Launched almost on the sly by the self-appointed president of the so-called Donetsk republic, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, the new non-State is the result Minsk agreements failure. And Poroshenko’s success.
What is the point in launching the idea of a new State now, now that the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk have already had three years of history (to say) undisturbed? In addition, a state that should comprehend not only the territory already under the control of separatists, but even all of Ukraine (except the already annexed Crimea)?
Apparently really none. And it seems to be confirmed by the cold reactions in Russia to Zakharchenko’s initiative, and even the distance taken by his “homologue” in Luhansk, Igor Plotninsky.
In short, at first sight, the Malorossya project seems to please no one.
Yet, seen from Donetsk and Moscow, it could make sense.
Novorossya
In fact, Malorossya rhymes with Novorossya. The project of a new state that would have to comprehend all of the east and south of Ukraine, linking by land Mother Russia to Crimea. A project born after the outbreak of the war, and failed miserably for two fundamental reasons: the lack of spontaneous participation of the population (which surprised the architects of Novorossya) and the Malaysia MH17 flight tragedy, shot down with reasonable degree of certainty by a Russian anti-air missile.
The new state should have been based on land collectivization, nationalization of industries, cultural unitywith the Russian world. The ultimate goal of Novorossya would be joining the Eurasian Union (strongly wanted by Moscow) and merge one day in the great putative Russian homeland.
Things have not gone this way. Russia has changed its plan, abandoning the annexation of Donbass and sending the project to the dustbin. For Moscow, the semi-frozen conflict set by Minsk agreements was fine. It was enough to undermine Ukraine’s integrity and destabilize the country.
Rewriting Minsk
Now this plan also seems to be overcome. It has become evident that no one wants to take over the impoverished, depopulated, devastated Donbass. Not only Russia, but even Ukraine is no more interested in wasting lives and resources to regain control over that territory.
In addition, there are the Minsk agreements: a rip off for Kiev, which at the time signed the document at Putin’s gunpoint.
But in these three years, government in Kiev gained time and awareness. Western support, i.e. sanctions against Russia and NATO’s change of pace, had some effects. Poroshenko’s policy has become more audacious and shrewd. Kiev has actually put the Donbass out its agenda, making it losing its destabilizing power. Moscow, in short, is seeing its main weapon fading out.
And then, replacing Ukraine with Malorossya – even if only in Zakharchenko’s words – may not be such an insane idea for the Kremlin. It gets under nationalists skin and makes Ukraine’s Western partners lift up their spars. It may ultimately seem like a threat to escalate the conflict.
Kiev and the West, however, must have clear that this is yet another proof that the Minsk agreements are to be deleted and rewritten. On a new balance of forces.
@daniloeliatweet
Launched almost on the sly by the self-appointed president of the so-called Donetsk republic, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, the new non-State is the result Minsk agreements failure. And Poroshenko’s success.
