In May, 400 million Europeans will vote for the ninth time. At a national level, pro-European leaders are in trouble, but less in Europe
Never before has Europe‘s fate and its capacity to compete with other global powers been decided by elections for the European parliament. The unprecedented clash between pro-Europeans and Sovereigntists that is at the centre of the electoral campaign is being vilified by unqualified language and conduct, like the fierce exchange between French President Emmanuel Macron and the representatives of the Italian ‘yellow and green’ government (Conte, Salvini and Di Maio). According to the most recent polls, Macron is in serious trouble even though his votes will be merged with those of the ALDE group (which should post a good showing thanks to the votes of the Spanish right wing Ciudadanos party). Perhaps that’s why Italian Vice-President Matteo Salvini is attacking Macron who, for his part, has committed the major sin of answering back, always a sign of weakness. The fear of the polls also explains Macron and Merkel grandstanding at the signing of the new bilateral agreement between France and Germany in the shadow of Charlemagne’s grave in Aachen, suggesting that they want to rekindle the European project as we have known it up to now.
The European elections in May will be the ninth since 1979 and will involve citizens with voting rights from all of the Union’s member states, approximately 400 million people. In 4 states (Belgium, Cyprus, Greece and Luxembourg) attendance is compulsory while in all the others, Italy included, participation is voluntary.
Despite the upheavals at a national level, according to the latest polls the next elections are unlikely to affect the major political coalitions and their share of seats. For what they’re worth, the polls still have the PPE in the lead with 22.5% (+1.1%), followed by the Social Democrats with 17.1% (-0.6%) followed by the liberals of ALDE with 13.1% (+0.1%), then come ENF (7.9%) (+0.7%), GUE/NGL 7.7% (-0.6%), ECR 7.4% (+1.7%). and EFDD 7.1% (-0.9%). The European People’s Party (which can rely on the votes of Forza Italia, bolstered by Berlusconi’s candidacy) should then receive 177 seats and would remain the largest group in the European Parliament. The European Socialist Party, affiliated with the Democratic Party, is unlikely to win more than 136 seats. The liberals of ALDE with 96 seats would be ranked third, and would include the votes awarded to the French president. The fourth spot would go to Europe of Nations and Freedom Group (ENF) which harbours the League along with the candidates of Le Pen’s Front National which should secure 62 seats, ten more than the left wing GUE/NGL group, the ECR reformists and the 47 seats of the Greens. The 5 Star Movement, which in Europe has only joined the EFDD group would have to make do with 46 seats. Rather meagre pickings for the yellow-green government.
But these figures should be taken with a pinch of salt. On the eve of the elections in Bavaria, last October 14, everyone was forecasting a bumper crop for the far right party Alternative für Deutschland. Instead the honours went to a party on the opposite end of the political spectrum, the Greens, while the AfD, with ambitions of clearing the 20% mark, had to chew on a result of just 10%. And that’s not the first time that the ballots defy the polls. Yet the fear surrounding the sovereigntist factions is still there. According to long-standing pollsters like Pagnoncelli, the time for a right wing landslide is yet to come. According to estimates by Politico.eu. the total of the parties classified as soft or hard Euro-sceptics (such as the League) are likely to be hard put to win between 150 and 170 seats. Less than a quarter of the 705 seats that will be assigned after the May vote, the first without the United Kingdom. Politico.eu’s estimate seems almost excessive, compared to the average of the latest polls. Pollofpolls.eu, a portal that monitors Europeans’ voting intentions, downsizes the share of ‘sovereigntist’ seats to closer to 100: 57 to parties running under the Europe of Nations and Freedom flag and 50 going to lists connected to Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD, the grouping that hosts the 5 Star Movement). Italy would be getting the lion’s share here, with a total of 28 seats allocated to the League and 26 to the 5 Star Movement. A bunch of votes that would bolster the two families that count among their ranks Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement national, the German far right party Alternative für Deutschland and other lesser groups such as the Polish Nowa Prawica (a ‘radically eurosceptic‘ party that wants the death penalty reinstated) and Svoboda a přímá demokracie, a Czech party with just 1,400 members. The diffidence towards ‘Brussels bureaucrats’ could act as a bond and override the implicit hostility towards a group made up entirely of nationalists. But even the Rassemblement national (an updated version of the Front national) or the Danish People are vying for the moderate vote. One also has to consider that forces that have little in common with the moderate vote, such as Viktor Orban’s Fidesz, are still hosted within the People’s Party.
Orban, or indeed Salvini. The troubles within the parties are shifting the spotlight onto the leaders or those who aspire to the role. But are we so sure that Salvini is a strong leader? Or more poignantly a respected leader? As a great political journalist put it better than I ever could “He resembles an arrogant gang leader, who boast a party and an electorate that are more akin to vassals than militants”. As for the Five Star Movement the leadership is shared between a controlling owner (Casaleggio & Associati), a brilliantly inspirational comedian (Beppe Grillo) and a young politician whose main concern is avoiding a collision course with the owner or the inspirational comedian while holding together an electorate brought up on a diet of generalised cussing. Ultimately, they are all leaders fuelled by slogans who have little to do with representative democracy.
As for the Italian centre-left and its preparations for the European elections, things aren’t going much better here either. Once again there’s quite a crowd of aspiring leaders (the primary election candidates), but backed by weak and often not formally established parties. That’s the case of LEU that has not managed to become a party after promising to do so after the political elections, but the same applies to the smaller left-wing formations such as Sinistra Italiana, Potere al Popolo or De Magistris’ movement. I think that in many cases these formations are making the mistake of seeking a leader at all costs (Pisapia, Grasso and now perhaps Calenda) rather than fielding a group of reliable managers both at local and central level.
Massimo D’Alema in an interview for La Stampa on January 31 remarked that the juxtaposition between pro-Europeans and Sovereigntists could become a trap that might trip up the left. But an alliance of forces that relate to the democratic left at the upcoming European elections is essential, however tricky it is to set up in practice. Clearly without anyone being excluded because if one wants to be involved in European socialism it would be little strange to say: the left-wing Democratic Party yes, LEU no. Both are part of the European socialist family.
So content should take centre stage. A reformist European alliance that takes its cue from European socialism and the ecological movements can effectively be achieved by presenting a proposal for Europe. Providing it can overcome the old approach whereby, as D’Alema noted: “politics had to take a back seat and allow the economy and finance to rule the roost”.
@pelosigerardo
This article is also published in the March/April issue of eastwest.
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In May, 400 million Europeans will vote for the ninth time. At a national level, pro-European leaders are in trouble, but less in Europe
