Why it is still unclear who shot down the flight Malaysia MH-17, what will make a real law on lustration, has Russian invaded Ukraine or not? Here is the last part of my quick reference guide to sort out what really happened, and imagine what will be next in 2015.
(read the first and the second part)
MH-17. The Malaysia Airlines Boeing with 298 passengers that crashed in the skies of Donbass on July 17 is a great example of how the facts in this war end up in the background, while the scene is occupied by the propaganda. A nearly six months away, it is still unknown who downed the plane, and perhaps we will never know it. There are versions for all tastes: #1, Russians shot it down the to blame Ukrainians. #2, separatists shot it down by mistake with an anti-aircraft system provided by Russians. #3, Ukrainians downed it by mistake with the same Soviet-made anti-aircraft system. #4, Ukrainians shot it down on the orders of the CIA to blame Russians.
Occam Razor should suffice: the Ukrainian army, which has the Soviet-made missile systems Buk in force, had no reason to use them, because the separatists have never had any air support. There were no planes to shoot down. Hypotheses #1 and #3 are out.
The Russian government has always denied having provided the separatists antiaircraft weapon systems; on the other hand, militiamen themselves were boasting before the disaster to be in possession of a missile launcher Buk. Ergo, would not make sense for the CIA to down the plane to blame Russia, because separatists would be easily found guilty instead. Hypothesis #4 is out.
There was an intense Ukrainian aerial activity in the Ato zone in those weeks, and the militia had already shot down at least two transport planes and a helicopter in the previous days. They had every reason to have an effective anti-aircraft system to neutralize the Ukrainian aviation. Hypothesis #2 seems to work.
Logic would suffice. Moreover, a disproportionate amount of serious, precise and consistent clues blames the then separatists commanders Igor “Strelkov” Girkin and Igor “Bez” Bezler. Already half an hour after the tragedy, Strelkov posted a message on Vkontakte boasting to have shot down an Ukrainian Antonov 26. Numerous geolocated videos and pictures show a Buk while being transported to Snizhne, less than ten miles from the crash site, and then a few hours later while traveling to the border with Russia with a missile missing. Finally yet importantly, there is Bezler’s voice, leaked by Ukrainian intelligence and later confirmed by himself, speaking of the shot down plane.
However, logic may little against the megaphones of propaganda, and against the blinders of ideological bias. Therefore, the network continues to be full of conspiracy theories. Recently, even the Russian Pervy Kanal TV spread a new “evidence”, showing a satellite photo of a Ukrainian fighter while firing at the Boeing. It took only a few hours to unmask the fake got fotoshopping two years old images taken from Google maps.
Besides the junk of Pervy Kanal, there are other satellites that almost certainly have “seen” the launch of Buk.
A few days after the killing, the Los Angeles Times reported sources of the Department of Defense saying that the radar system of the Defence support program, thanks to a technique called MASINT, draw the exact point of the launch and trajectory of the missile. The question is, if the Pentagon has evidence that a Russian Buk shot down the Flight MH-17, why they not release them? Meanwhile the Malaysia Boeing continues to disappear along with his 298 dead in the background of this war.
Lustratsija. It is the law passed on September 25, which aims to clean up the entire Ukrainian political class and leadership by those who cooperated with the “old” system. It responds to the desire to justicialism and the chimera that some article can mend the country. It is a law difficult to apply and that requires the intervention of the targeted institutions to be implemented, and that is likely to create inequities and exacerbate divisions. An example: Poroshenko himself would be swept away by the lustration, having held the post of Minister of Commerce with Yanukovich from March to December 2012, if only the Article 3 of the law did not limit its effects to those who have held positions at least for one year. The lustration law does not affect in any way, neither it could, the grey powers of Ukraine, those 50 richest men in the country who have in their hands 50% of GDP and who for two decades have pulled the strings of Ukrainian politics. Even now.
Punishers and terrorists. This is the vicious circle of the good against the bad. A Maelstrom from which we can not get out. We’re the good guys, and no criticism can be leveled at our work. If we act against the rules or common sense, we do it for a good end, noble, that justifies everything. In a Machiavellian way. If wrong, we need to be forgiven, because we act in good faith. God is on our side, no doubt. Our fighters are nothing less than heroes. They, the others, punisher terrorists Nazi criminals who did not even spare the children. They are the bad people. What, you do not see? Everything against them is legitimate. And if someone is involved, well, it’s the price to pay for freedom.
This is perhaps the greatest evil that this new war has brought. A deep rift has opened in the Pan-Slav world. And only time will tell if it will never heal. Before it all began, each of us could say they love the Slavic world in its entirety and complexity; to love Russia and Ukraine, their cultures and their people, without fear of having to choose one side of the fence. Today this seems impossible. Until a year ago, the rift ran already latent in Ukraine, but we did not have to justify by explaining to feel empathy for the Russian soul, go to Russia and have Russian friends. Nor to justify by saying the same things of Ukraine. Until a year ago, if you do not approve of the policy of Putin, there was no need to remember that Putin is “Russia” nor “Russians”. Today, if I write an article with some criticism to Putin, I’m branded as anti-Russian, and there’s no way of escape. It would be like saying that if I express criticism of Obama, are anti American. It makes no sense.
Russian invasion. Here is the thorniest issue of all. Let’s not consider Crimea, which is another story. The Russian army has invaded Ukraine or not? There is a deluge of videos showing Russian soldiers marching through the fields of wheat, driving armored column, while shooting Grad rocket launchers to the horizon. There are testimonies of injured soldiers who fought in Ukraine. There are also body bags that returned home on the infamous Cargo 200. A source who asked to remain anonymous told me about how the recruitment is done, in anonymous apartments in Rostov that change continuously, told me about the organization that provides the transport across the border with breakaway territories, and how much they get paid. The Kremlin has never denied the presence of Russian “volunteers” in Donbass. Still it’s missing the smoking gun. Amidst all these videos, testimonies, prisoners and the fallen, there is no trace of regular military, or videos are not dated and precisely localized, or are unclear. With such a framework, it can be said that the Russian army is present in Donbass? Or maybe it’s more accurate to say that Moscow remotely controls the conflict? It is not a small difference. Also to understand the real intentions of the Kremlin.
@daniloeliatweet
Why it is still unclear who shot down the flight Malaysia MH-17, what will make a real law on lustration, has Russian invaded Ukraine or not? Here is the last part of my quick reference guide to sort out what really happened, and imagine what will be next in 2015.
